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2000—2020年雅鲁藏布江流域中游地区大气气溶胶时空变化及影响因素

[Spatiotemporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Atmospheric Aerosol in the Middle Region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 2000 to 2020].

作者信息

Wang Wei, Wu Guang-Jian, Fan Li-Hang, An Bao-Sheng, Yang Ze-Rui, Huang Ju

机构信息

State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.

出版信息

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2024 Dec 8;45(12):7003-7011. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202312198.

Abstract

Based on the aerosol optical depth (AOD) of the MODIS MCD19A2 dataset from 2000 to 2020, combined with meteorological data, land use/land cover data, and socio-economic data, the spatiotemporal distribution of AOD in the middle region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin was analyzed using STL and Theil-Sen Median trend estimation and the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on AOD was revealed using GeoDetector, XGBoost model and SHAP analysis. The results showed that the spatial heterogeneity of AOD in the middle region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin was obvious, which was mainly controlled by topography, with high AOD value concentrated in the valley with the altitude lower than 4 300 m. Owing to the precipitation and surface wind speed, the seasonal difference of AOD was obvious, with the highest in winter. From 2000 to 2020, AOD in the middle region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin showed an increasing trend, with the annual average AOD rising from 0.008 to 0.012. This increase was especially strong in the valley area, where the AOD was significantly impacted by enhanced anthropogenic activities and the abundance of sand sources of exposed riverbed. Among the factors influencing AOD in the middle region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, the changes in mean annual temperature, mean wind speed, population density, and GDP were positively correlated with the changes in AOD, whereas the changes in precipitation were negatively correlated. In particular, the increase in temperature was the factor that contributed predominantly (61.1%) to the recent changes in AOD.

摘要

基于2000年至2020年MODIS MCD19A2数据集的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD),结合气象数据、土地利用/土地覆盖数据和社会经济数据,利用STL和Theil-Sen中位数趋势估计分析了雅鲁藏布江流域中部地区AOD的时空分布,并利用地理探测器、XGBoost模型和SHAP分析揭示了自然和人为因素对AOD的影响。结果表明,雅鲁藏布江流域中部地区AOD的空间异质性明显,主要受地形控制,AOD高值集中在海拔低于4300米的山谷。由于降水和地面风速,AOD的季节差异明显,冬季最高。2000年至2020年,雅鲁藏布江流域中部地区AOD呈上升趋势,年平均AOD从0.008升至0.012。这种增加在山谷地区尤为明显,该地区的AOD受到人为活动增强和裸露河床沙源丰富的显著影响。在影响雅鲁藏布江流域中部地区AOD的因素中,年平均气温、平均风速、人口密度和GDP的变化与AOD的变化呈正相关,而降水的变化呈负相关。特别是,气温升高是导致近期AOD变化的主要因素(61.1%)。

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