Tang Jing, Yi Lu, Zeng Qing-Jun
Institute of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone Development, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2024 Nov 8;45(11):6378-6391. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202312030.
Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities and above and provincial-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, respectively, this study measured the agricultural carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and carbon offset rates from 2006 to 2021 and analyzed their evolution characteristics. Based on the STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis, this study identified the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in the 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, combined them with the scenario analysis method to predict the agricultural carbon emissions under the baseline scenario in the period of 2022 to 2025, and analyzed the process of "carbon peaking." Simultaneously, this study predicted the agricultural carbon sinks of 11 provinces and cities from 2022 to 2025 and then speculated their agricultural "carbon neutral" process under the framework of agricultural carbon compensation rate, so as to summarize the effective paths for different provinces and cities to achieve agricultural "carbon peak and carbon neutral." The results showed that： ① Changes in agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone during the observation period followed an inverted U-shape and peaked in 2015 at 33 312.65×10 tons. The fluctuation of agricultural carbon sinks was relatively small, with an overall upward trend. The upward trend of the agricultural carbon offset rate was obvious, but it still belonged to the "net carbon emission" region. ② Regional differences of agricultural carbon offsetting rate were prominent, and there was a polarization phenomenon, with "net carbon sink" cities significantly less than "net carbon emission" cities. ③ Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Sichuan reached the peak of agricultural carbon emissions in 2006, which Anhui and Chongqing reached in 2012, and the rest of the provinces and municipalities showed a clear upward trend. ④ Anhui, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Yunnan crossed the "agricultural carbon neutral line" and achieved agricultural carbon neutrality. Jiangsu was expected to achieve this in 2026-2030, whereas the remaining provinces and municipalities faced greater difficulties.
本研究分别基于长江经济带地级市及以上城市和省级城市的面板数据，测算2006—2021年农业碳排放、碳汇及碳抵消率，并分析其演变特征。基于STIRPAT模型和岭回归分析，识别长江经济带11个省市农业碳排放的影响因素，结合情景分析法预测2022—2025年基准情景下农业碳排放情况，并分析“碳达峰”进程。同时，预测2022—2025年11个省市农业碳汇情况，进而在农业碳补偿率框架下推测其农业“碳中和”进程，以总结不同省市实现农业“碳达峰、碳中和”的有效路径。结果表明：①观测期内长江经济带农业碳排放变化呈倒U形，2015年达到峰值33 312.65×10吨。农业碳汇波动相对较小，整体呈上升趋势。农业碳抵消率上升趋势明显，但仍属于“碳排放净区”。②农业碳抵消率区域差异突出，存在两极分化现象，“碳汇净区”城市明显少于“碳排放净区”城市。③上海、浙江和四川在2006年达到农业碳排放峰值，安徽和重庆在2012年达到峰值，其余省市呈明显上升趋势。④安徽、重庆、四川和云南跨越“农业碳中和线”，实现农业碳中和。江苏预计在2026—2030年实现，其余省市面临较大困难。
