Xi J Y, Ming R Q, Wang Y J, Fu Y B, Zhang Z, Zhang J, Bai J J, Xiang Y N, Lin X, Gu J, Hao Y T, Liu G
Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou510080, China Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou510080, China Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou510080, China.
School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan523808, China Department of Operations Management (Department of Primary Public Health Promotion), Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen518055, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2024 Nov 10;45(11):1550-1558. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240606-00334.
To analyze the disease burden in middle-aged and elderly population aged ≥55 in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2030 and provide evidence for the development of healthy aging strategies. The years of life lost (YLL), years lost due to disability (YLD), and the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) in this population from 2016 to 2022 were calculated. Joinpoint log-linear regression model was used to analyze the time trend. Bayesian age-period-cohort model and grey system model were used to predict YLL, YLD, and DALY in this population in 2030. From 2016 to 2022, the crude DALY rate showed a transient fluctuation in age group 55-74 years, but a pronounced increase in age group ≥85 years. The proportions of YLL and YLD due to non-communicable diseases in all age groups was considerably higher than those due to communicable and nutritional diseases and injuries. In 2022, in all age groups, the YLL due to neoplasms (55-74 years old) and cardiovascular disease (≥75 years old) ranked first, and the YLD due to musculoskeletal disorder ranked first. By 2030, the causes of YLL and YLD ranking first in each age group would be remained, while the ranks of some causes would increase. The age specific characteristics of current and predicted disease burden differed in individuals aged ≥55 years. Therefore, it is necessary to allocate social and medical resources according to the disease burden pattern.
分析2016年至2030年深圳≥55岁中老年人群的疾病负担，为制定健康老龄化策略提供依据。计算该人群2016年至2022年的寿命损失年数（YLL）、残疾损失年数（YLD）和伤残调整生命年（DALY）。采用Joinpoint对数线性回归模型分析时间趋势。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型和灰色系统模型预测该人群2030年的YLL、YLD和DALY。2016年至2022年，粗DALY率在55-74岁年龄组呈短暂波动，但在≥85岁年龄组显著上升。各年龄组非传染性疾病导致的YLL和YLD比例显著高于传染性、营养性疾病和伤害导致的比例。2022年，各年龄组中，肿瘤（55-74岁）和心血管疾病（≥75岁）导致的YLL排名第一，肌肉骨骼疾病导致的YLD排名第一。到2030年，各年龄组中导致YLL和YLD排名第一的病因将保持不变，但部分病因的排名会上升。≥55岁人群当前和预测的疾病负担的年龄特异性特征存在差异。因此，有必要根据疾病负担模式分配社会和医疗资源。
