Shamim Taha, Bhat M Sultan, Alam Akhtar, Ahsan Shafkat, Sheikh Hilal Ahmad
Department of Geography and Disaster Management, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, India.
GDC Sopore, Higher Education Department, UT of J&K, Sopore, India.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Dec 5;197(1):27. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13366-8.
Spatiotemporal variations in drought events were examined through multiple drought indices in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) during the 1980-2020 period using observed climate data of precipitation, temperature (T max., T min., and T mean), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 16 meteorological stations. Software like ClimPACT2 (to quality check data and generate SPI, SPEI, and CDD drought indices), DrinC (to generate AI, eRDI and PD drought indices), CMhyd (to bias correct NASA POWER gridded data), and ArcGIS (to map extreme drought years) were used in this study. It was revealed that precipitation decreased at 30 mm/decade and maximum and minimum temperatures increased at 0.132 °C/decade and 0.23 °C/decade, aridity increased by decreasing aridity index at 0.15/decade, and number of consecutive dry days increased at 2 days/decade. All drought indices reflected decreasing trends, indicating a warming and drying climatic regime. The eRDI drought index analysis revealed that droughts have occurred for 12.6 years in the last four decades, and mild droughts (15%) are more common, followed by moderate droughts (9.4%), severe droughts (4.7%), and extreme droughts (2.4%). The study provides comparisons of drought patterns under changing climate in three distinct climatic and physical regions of UIB, i.e., Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh, and reveals that the UIB is not free from droughts.
利用16个气象站观测的降水、温度（最高温度、最低温度和平均温度）以及潜在蒸散量（PET）等气候数据，通过多个干旱指数对印度河上游流域（UIB）1980 - 2020年期间干旱事件的时空变化进行了研究。本研究使用了ClimPACT2（用于数据质量检查和生成SPI、SPEI和CDD干旱指数）、DrinC（用于生成AI、eRDI和PD干旱指数）、CMhyd（用于对NASA POWER网格化数据进行偏差校正）以及ArcGIS（用于绘制极端干旱年份地图）等软件。结果表明，降水量以每十年30毫米的速度减少，最高温度和最低温度分别以每十年0.132℃和0.23℃的速度上升，干旱程度通过干旱指数每十年下降0.15而增加，连续干旱天数以每十年2天的速度增加。所有干旱指数均呈现下降趋势，表明气候呈现变暖和变干的状态。eRDI干旱指数分析显示，在过去四十年中干旱发生了12.6年，轻度干旱（15%）最为常见，其次是中度干旱（9.4%）、重度干旱（4.7%）和极端干旱（2.4%）。该研究对UIB三个不同气候和自然区域（即查谟、克什米尔和拉达克）气候变化下的干旱模式进行了比较，揭示了UIB并非没有干旱。
