Li Jun, Li Tiantian, Wang Wei
School of Public Economics and Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Dec 5;19(12):e0311991. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311991. eCollection 2024.
The relative deprivation index can reflect the income inequality faced by different individuals, which is helpful to understand the relationship between income inequality and the variability of fertility intentions. But previous studies have almost focused on the macro indicators of income inequality, ignoring individual heterogeneity in income inequality. In this study, we explore the causal relationship and potential mechanisms between income inequality and fertility intentions from the perspective of relative deprivation in income. The findings are as follows: (1) An increase in income inequality boosts individuals' fertility intentions, and the results are still robust after using the instrumental variables two-stage least squares (2SLS) model to deal with endogeneity. (2) Mechanism analysis reveals that income inequality improves individuals' fertility intentions through the channels of "Build hopes on children", "Allocate more time to families" and "Put less value on children's education". (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that income inequality has a more pronounced positive impact on fertility intentions of individuals with poor education, low household assets and without pension insurance. (4) Further analysis reveals that an increase in income inequality at macro level also promote individuals' fertility intentions. Our findings hold significant policy implications for promoting a rebound in fertility rates. When developing policies to adjust income distribution, it is necessary to consider the response of individuals' fertility decisions to income inequality. Policymakers should ensure that efforts to improve income distribution do not inadvertently reduce the willingness of individuals to have more children.
相对剥夺指数能够反映不同个体所面临的收入不平等状况,这有助于理解收入不平等与生育意愿变异性之间的关系。但以往研究几乎都聚焦于收入不平等的宏观指标,忽视了收入不平等中的个体异质性。在本研究中,我们从收入相对剥夺的视角探究收入不平等与生育意愿之间的因果关系及潜在机制。研究结果如下:(1)收入不平等加剧会提高个体的生育意愿,在使用工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)模型处理内生性问题后,结果依然稳健。(2)机制分析表明,收入不平等通过“寄希望于子女”“为家庭分配更多时间”和“降低对子女教育的重视程度”等渠道提高个体的生育意愿。(3)异质性分析表明,收入不平等对受教育程度低、家庭资产少且没有养老保险的个体的生育意愿有更显著的正向影响。(4)进一步分析表明,宏观层面收入不平等加剧也会促进个体的生育意愿。我们的研究结果对促进生育率回升具有重要的政策启示。在制定调整收入分配的政策时,有必要考虑个体生育决策对收入不平等的反应。政策制定者应确保改善收入分配的努力不会在不经意间降低个体生育更多子女的意愿。