Dyderski Marcin K, Paź-Dyderska Sonia, Jagodziński Andrzej M, Puchałka Radosław
Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland.
Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Jan;373:123504. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123504. Epub 2024 Dec 6.
Key European tree species are expected to contract their ranges under changing climate, thus there is a need to assess range shifts for other native tree species that could fill their forest niche. Recent studies have focused on economically important species, revealing a wide range of shifts in their distribution worldwide and highlighting several pathways for potential future changes. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat levels by the years 2041-60 and 2061-80, for 20 European temperate forest tree species under four climate change scenarios. We compared ten standard stock tree species with ten alternative stock species, that are less frequent and less preferred by managers. We combined distribution data from several sources for each tree species and developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and seven bioclimatic variables. We applied these models to projections of future climate from four global circulation models, under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and for near and middle terms: 2041-60 and 2061-80. We also assessed the relationships between predicted range contraction and their functional traits. Analysis of MaxEnt models divided the studied tree species into three groups: non-threatened (Sorbus torminalis, Ulmus minor, Tilia platyphyllos, Acer pseudoplatanus, Prunus avium, and Carpinus betulus), partially threatened (U. laevis, Betula pendula, Quercus robur, Q. petraea, A. platanoides, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, T. cordata, Alnus glutinosa, and U. glabra), and the most threatened (Abies alba, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris). For the last group, almost half of the range contraction will occur earlier (2041-2060) compared to our previous predictions (2061-2080). The proportion of range contraction decreased with increasing specific leaf area, leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, seed mass, and specific stem density while it increased with increasing height. Our study provides novel predictions of shifts in climatic optima under the most recent climate change scenarios, which would be useful for evidence-based conservation and management of European forests. The near-term predicted threats to the main standard stock tree species call for intensified preparation for incoming changes. We recommend splitting the silvicultural risks over a wider range of tree species, also including alternative stock species.
预计在气候变化的情况下，欧洲主要树种的分布范围将会缩小，因此有必要评估其他能够填补其森林生态位的本土树种的分布范围变化。最近的研究集中在具有经济重要性的树种上，揭示了它们在全球范围内分布的广泛变化，并突出了未来潜在变化的几种途径。我们的目标是量化在四种气候变化情景下，20种欧洲温带森林树种到2041 - 2060年和2061 - 2080年预计分布范围和威胁水平的变化。我们将十种标准储备树种与十种替代储备树种进行了比较，后者出现频率较低且管理者不太偏好。我们整合了每个树种来自多个来源的分布数据，并使用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和七个生物气候变量开发了物种分布模型。我们将这些模型应用于四个全球环流模型对未来气候的预测，这些预测是在四种共享社会经济路径下针对近期和中期（2041 - 2060年和2061 - 2080年）进行的。我们还评估了预测的分布范围收缩与其功能性状之间的关系。对最大熵模型的分析将所研究的树种分为三组：无威胁组（欧洲花楸、小叶榆、阔叶椴、假挪威槭、甜樱桃和欧洲鹅耳枥）、部分受威胁组（光叶榆、垂枝桦、英国栎、无梗花栎、挪威槭、欧洲山毛榉、欧洲白蜡树、心叶椴、欧洲桤木和光滑榆）以及受威胁最严重组（欧洲冷杉、欧洲落叶松、欧洲云杉和欧洲赤松）。对于最后一组，与我们之前的预测（2061 - 2080年）相比，几乎一半的分布范围收缩将提前发生（2041 - 2060年）。分布范围收缩的比例随着比叶面积、叶面积、叶氮含量、种子质量和比茎密度的增加而降低，而随着树高的增加而增加。我们的研究提供了在最新气候变化情景下气候适宜性变化的新预测，这将有助于对欧洲森林进行基于证据的保护和管理。近期对主要标准储备树种预测的威胁要求加强对即将到来变化的准备。我们建议将造林风险分散到更广泛的树种上，也包括替代储备树种。
