Giwa Fiyinfoluwa, Ngepah Nicholas
School of Economics, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa.
Heliyon. 2024 Nov 22;10(23):e40640. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40640. eCollection 2024 Dec 15.
As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to advance, its impact on employment is a topic of concern. In South Africa, where low-skilled labor forms a significant portion of the workforce, the integration of AI technologies raises questions about the future of employment opportunities and economic stability. This manuscript explores the relationship between AI adoption, low-skilled employment dynamics, and its implications using key economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach from 2012Q1 to 2021Q4, the study's findings reveal a significant negative correlation between artificial intelligence and low-skilled employment in the long run. Granger causality tests reveal directional relationships, with AI investment unidirectionally causing low-skilled employment. As a policy implication, this study recommends implementing training programs to equip workers with the necessary skills to adapt to the evolving job market influenced by technological advancements. Additionally, it suggests monitoring the implementation of AI technologies and establishing policies to mitigate labor market disruptions.
随着人工智能（AI）不断发展，其对就业的影响成为一个备受关注的话题。在南非，低技能劳动力占劳动力的很大一部分，人工智能技术的融入引发了有关就业机会未来和经济稳定性的问题。本论文使用通货膨胀、利率和外国直接投资（FDI）等关键经济指标，探讨了人工智能应用、低技能就业动态及其影响之间的关系。该研究采用向量误差修正模型（VECM）方法，研究时段为2012年第一季度至2021年第四季度，研究结果显示，从长期来看，人工智能与低技能就业之间存在显著的负相关关系。格兰杰因果检验揭示了方向性的关系，即人工智能投资单向导致低技能就业。作为一项政策建议，本研究建议实施培训计划，使工人具备必要技能，以适应受技术进步影响而不断演变的就业市场。此外，研究还建议监测人工智能技术的实施情况，并制定政策以减轻劳动力市场的干扰。
