Ellis Geoffrey S, Gelman Sarah E
Energy Resources Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, USA.
Sci Adv. 2024 Dec 13;10(50):eado0955. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.ado0955.
Geologic hydrogen could be a low-carbon primary energy resource; however, the magnitude of Earth's subsurface endowment has not yet been assessed. Knowledge of the occurrence and behavior of natural hydrogen on Earth has been combined with information from geologic analogs to construct a mass balance model to predict the resource potential. Given the associated uncertainty, stochastic model results predict a wide range of values for the potential in-place hydrogen resource [10 to 10 million metric tons (Mt)] with the most probable value of 5.6 × 10 Mt. Although most of this hydrogen is likely to be impractical to recover, a small fraction (e.g., 1 × 10 Mt) would supply the projected hydrogen needed to reach net-zero carbon emissions for ~200 years. This amount of hydrogen contains more energy (1.4 × 10 MJ) than all proven natural gas reserves on Earth (~8.4 × 10 MJ). Study results demonstrate that further research into understanding the potential for geologic hydrogen resources is merited.
地质氢可能是一种低碳一次能源；然而，地球地下储量的规模尚未得到评估。关于地球上天然氢的赋存和行为的知识已与来自地质类比的信息相结合，构建了一个质量平衡模型来预测资源潜力。考虑到相关的不确定性，随机模型结果预测原地氢资源潜力的取值范围很广[10到10000万公吨（Mt）]，最可能的值约为5.6×10 Mt。尽管其中大部分氢可能难以回收利用，但一小部分（例如1×10 Mt）就能提供预计约200年实现净零碳排放所需的氢。这么多的氢所含能量（约1.4×10 MJ）比地球上所有已探明的天然气储量（约8.4×10 MJ）还要多。研究结果表明，值得进一步开展研究以了解地质氢资源的潜力。
