Gender, climate and landowning: Sources of variability in the weather pattern change and ideal fertility relationship in Sahelian West Africa.

This paper advances our understanding of the relationship between climate change and ideal fertility in Sahelian West Africa by exploring sources of variation in that relationship. Using an integrated dataset of Demographic and Health Surveys with monthly rainfall and temperature data, the analyses model dimensions of prospective ideal fertility for young, childless men and women in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria. Temperature, particularly in the arid climate zone, is shown to have a positive effect on ideal fertility. Landowning insulates individuals from adjusting their fertility ideals in response to change. Gender-stratified models reveal that under hotter conditions, women have a higher ideal number of children but their ideal gender composition remains relatively balanced, while men do not change their ideal number of children but show a preference for more sons. The increase in ideal fertility in response to weather change may be understood as an increasing need to generate human capital to meet the increased labour demands that climate change brings over both the short and the long term.