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性别、气候与土地所有权：萨赫勒地区西部非洲天气模式变化与理想生育力关系中的变异性来源

Gender, climate and landowning: Sources of variability in the weather pattern change and ideal fertility relationship in Sahelian West Africa.

作者信息

Brooks Isabel H McLoughlin

机构信息

Population Research Center & Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.

出版信息

Vienna Yearb Popul Res. 2024;22. doi: 10.1553/p-pfaj-9kzm. Epub 2024 Apr 30.

DOI:10.1553/p-pfaj-9kzm
PMID:39677400
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11643416/
Abstract

This paper advances our understanding of the relationship between climate change and ideal fertility in Sahelian West Africa by exploring sources of variation in that relationship. Using an integrated dataset of Demographic and Health Surveys with monthly rainfall and temperature data, the analyses model dimensions of prospective ideal fertility for young, childless men and women in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria. Temperature, particularly in the arid climate zone, is shown to have a positive effect on ideal fertility. Landowning insulates individuals from adjusting their fertility ideals in response to change. Gender-stratified models reveal that under hotter conditions, women have a higher ideal number of children but their ideal gender composition remains relatively balanced, while men do not change their ideal number of children but show a preference for more sons. The increase in ideal fertility in response to weather change may be understood as an increasing need to generate human capital to meet the increased labour demands that climate change brings over both the short and the long term.

摘要

本文通过探究气候变化与萨赫勒地区西非理想生育水平之间关系的差异来源，增进了我们对二者关系的理解。利用人口与健康调查的综合数据集以及月降雨量和温度数据，分析模型针对塞内加尔、马里、布基纳法索和尼日利亚无子女的年轻男女的预期理想生育水平维度进行了研究。结果表明，温度，尤其是在干旱气候区，对理想生育水平有积极影响。拥有土地使个人在应对变化时不会调整其生育理想。按性别分层的模型显示，在气候更炎热的条件下，女性的理想子女数量更多，但其理想的性别构成仍相对平衡，而男性的理想子女数量不变，但更倾向于生育更多儿子。应对气候变化而出现的理想生育水平上升，可理解为人们越来越需要通过生育来产生人力资本，以满足气候变化在短期和长期带来的劳动力需求增长。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f33/11643416/db224ec7b9b2/nihms-1996998-f0009.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f33/11643416/b5d38f5a17d9/nihms-1996998-f0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f33/11643416/b5bad5d4823b/nihms-1996998-f0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f33/11643416/59a638eec512/nihms-1996998-f0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f33/11643416/4869e55d2892/nihms-1996998-f0007.jpg
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Popul Environ. 2017;38:345-368. doi: 10.1007/s11111-017-0279-x. Epub 2017 May 30.
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Investigating the relationship between growing season quality and childbearing goals.研究生长季节质量与生育目标之间的关系。
Glob Environ Change. 2023 May;80:102677. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102677.
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Childlessness and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is There Evidence for a U-shaped Pattern?
撒哈拉以南非洲地区的无子女现象与发展：是否存在U型模式的证据？
Eur J Popul. 2022 Mar 10;38(3):319-352. doi: 10.1007/s10680-022-09608-5. eCollection 2022 Aug.
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Climate anomalies, land degradation and rural out-migration in Uganda.乌干达的气候异常、土地退化与农村人口外流
Popul Environ. 2020 Jun;41(4):507-528. doi: 10.1007/s11111-020-00349-3. Epub 2020 May 30.
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Husbands' Dominance in Decision-Making About Women's Health: A Spatial Diffusion Perspective in Sub-Saharan Africa.丈夫在妇女健康决策中的主导地位：撒哈拉以南非洲的空间扩散视角。
Demography. 2021 Oct 1;58(5):1955-1975. doi: 10.1215/00703370-9429489.
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Masculinity, Money, and the Postponement of Parenthood in Nigeria.尼日利亚的男子气概、金钱与生育推迟
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Gender Discrimination and Excess Female Under-5 Mortality in India: A New Perspective Using Mixed-Sex Twins.印度的性别歧视与 5 岁以下女童超额死亡率：利用混合性别双胞胎的新视角。
Demography. 2020 Dec;57(6):2143-2167. doi: 10.1007/s13524-020-00909-0.
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Climatic Variability and Changing Reproductive Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa.撒哈拉以南非洲的气候变异性与不断变化的生殖目标
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