Shi Yongchuang, Han Qingpeng, Zhang Shengmao, Yang Shenglong, Cheng Tianfei, Fan Wei, Zhao Guoqing, Han Haibin, Zhang Heng
East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Shanghai 200090, China.
Key Laboratory of Fisheries Remote Sensing Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Science, Shanghai 200090, China.
Animals (Basel). 2024 Nov 27;14(23):3434. doi: 10.3390/ani14233434.
Accurate estimation of fish stock abundance and exploitability is critical for effective fishery management; however, fishery-dependent data are often affected by temporal and spatial heterogeneities due to the seasonal migration of fish, posing challenges for refined stock management. Previous studies have largely ignored these spatio-temporal dynamics, assuming static populations. This study develops a seasonal spatio-temporal model for Japanese sardine () in the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NPO), using fishery-dependent data from 2014 to 2022. Seasonal standardized abundance indices (spring, summer, autumn, and an overall average) were generated and integrated with the abundance maximum sustainable yield (AMSY) method for stock assessment. The performance of the AMSY method using a spatio-temporal index was compared with the conventional model-based index, showing the superiority of the spatio-temporal approach. Results indicate a gradual increase in sardine abundance, with a significant shift in the center of gravity toward the northeast. The stock is in a sustainable state with a 94.8-99% probability of recovery. Although the stock is recovering, careful management is advised to prevent future declines. This framework offers a novel approach for assessing distant water and coastal fishery resources.
准确估计鱼类种群数量和可开发性对于有效的渔业管理至关重要；然而，由于鱼类的季节性洄游，依赖渔业的数据往往受到时空异质性的影响，这给精细化的种群管理带来了挑战。以往的研究在很大程度上忽略了这些时空动态，假定种群是静态的。本研究利用2014年至2022年的依赖渔业数据，为西北太平洋的日本沙丁鱼（）建立了一个季节性时空模型。生成了季节性标准化丰度指数（春季、夏季、秋季和总体平均值），并将其与用于种群评估的丰度最大可持续产量（AMSY）方法相结合。将使用时空指数的AMSY方法的性能与传统的基于模型的指数进行了比较，显示了时空方法的优越性。结果表明沙丁鱼丰度逐渐增加，重心显著向东北方向转移。该种群处于可持续状态，恢复概率为94.8 - 99%。尽管种群正在恢复，但建议进行谨慎管理以防止未来数量下降。该框架为评估远海和沿海渔业资源提供了一种新方法。
