Galić Ivan, Angelakopoulos Nikolaos, De Luca Stefano, De Micco Francesco, Martino Federica, Arrais Ribeiro Isabella Lima, Cameriere Roberto
AgEstimation Project, Department of Medicine and Health Sciences "Vincenzo Tiberio", University of Molise, Campobasso, Italy.
Department of Oral Surgery, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Split, University of Split, Split, Croatia.
Int J Legal Med. 2025 May;139(3):1205-1222. doi: 10.1007/s00414-024-03393-y. Epub 2024 Dec 23.
Methods for age estimation in children involve measurements of: (1) the projections of open apices and tooth heights (T), (2) the total area of the carpal bones and the epiphyses of the ulna and radius (HW), and (3) a combination of these parameters (THW). This study aimed to compare the accuracy of the original formulae for T, HW, and THW in Black South African (BSA) and White South African (WSA) samples of children and adolescents.
The sample comprised 556 subjects, 164 BSA (71 males and 93 females) and 392 WSA (171 males and 221 females) aged 6 to 16 years. The main sample comprised 556 subjects and was divided into two parts. The first part was used to develop new formulae specific to the South African population, while the second part, consisting of 183 subjects and referred to as the test sample, was used to evaluate the accuracy of these formulae and to quantify their uncertainty when applied to real cases. Adjusted R and standard errors of the estimate (SEEs) were calculated for each regression model. The mean absolute difference or error (MAE) between estimated and chronological age and the percentage of individuals within specific age ranges of ± 0.25, ± 0.5, ± 1, and ± 2 years of chronological age was used to compare the accuracy of formulae.
Teeth showed the most significant underestimation in the training sample, -0.49 years in males and - 0.29 years in females, as much as -0.70 years in WSA males, while BSA males were overestimated by + 0.03 years. Combining teeth and hand-wrist, the new formula showed the best performance in age estimation compared to only teeth or hand-wrist, except in WSA males (-0.51 years). New South African-specific formula improved accuracy, especially in males, suggesting their suitability alongside the original Cameriere et al. methods for precise age estimation.
The original regression formulae by Cameriere et al., along with the newly developed formulaespecific to South African populations, shows promise for age estimation, considering potential estimation errors and the accuracy rates demonstrated in this study.
儿童年龄估计方法涉及以下测量：（1）开放根尖和牙高（T）的投影，（2）腕骨以及尺骨和桡骨骨骺的总面积（HW），以及（3）这些参数的组合（THW）。本研究旨在比较原始的T、HW和THW公式在南非黑人（BSA）和南非白人（WSA）儿童及青少年样本中的准确性。
样本包括556名受试者，其中164名BSA（71名男性和93名女性）以及392名WSA（171名男性和221名女性），年龄在6至16岁之间。主要样本由556名受试者组成，分为两部分。第一部分用于开发针对南非人群的新公式，而第二部分由183名受试者组成，称为测试样本，用于评估这些公式的准确性，并在应用于实际案例时量化其不确定性。为每个回归模型计算调整后的R值和估计标准误差（SEEs）。使用估计年龄与实际年龄之间的平均绝对差异或误差（MAE）以及实际年龄±0.25、±0.5、±1和±2岁特定年龄范围内个体的百分比来比较公式的准确性。
在训练样本中，牙齿显示出最显著的低估，男性为 -0.49岁，女性为 -0.29岁，WSA男性高达 -0.70岁，而BSA男性被高估了 +0.03岁。与仅使用牙齿或手腕相比，将牙齿和手腕结合起来，新公式在年龄估计方面表现最佳，但WSA男性除外（-0.51岁）。新的南非特定公式提高了准确性，尤其是在男性中，表明它们与原始的卡梅里埃等人的方法一起适用于精确的年龄估计。
考虑到本研究中显示的潜在估计误差和准确率，卡梅里埃等人的原始回归公式以及新开发的针对南非人群的公式在年龄估计方面显示出前景。
