Quantitative Assessment of Baseline Serum HDL-C to Predict Gout Flares During Urate-Lowering Therapy Initiation: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PURPOSE

Previous studies have linked high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) to gout, but little is known about the dose-effect relationship between serum HDL-C levels and gout flares. This study aimed to quantify the association between the two during urate-lowering therapy initiation and develop a regression equation to predict gout flares.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective, observational, single-center cohort study of men with gout. Patients were identified and grouped according to the level of serum HDL-C (1.16 mmol/L) at baseline and followed-up every four weeks until 12 weeks.

RESULTS

A total of 394 participants completed the study (203 in the low HDL-C group; 191 in the high HDL-C group). The proportion of participants with gout flares in the low HDL-C group was significantly higher than in the high HDL-C group after 12 weeks follow-up (52.2% versus 35.6%, =0.001). Patients with lower serum HDL-C level had higher risk of gout flares analyzed by restricted cubic spline and when serum HDL-C level = 1.15mmol/L, flare = 1. When combined with well-known risk factors, serum HDL-C predicted gout flares with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI=0.70-0.80). Based on the logistic regression coefficients, we derived the following regression equation: Logit (P)= -2.282+0.05× [disease duration]+1.015× [recurrent flares in the last year]+0.698× [palpable tophus]+0.345× [serum urate]-1.349×[serum HDL-C].

CONCLUSION

Patients with gout presented a negative linear relationship between serum HDL-C and gout flares. Together with common clinical indicators, the AUC for gout flare prediction increased to 0.75. For patients with gout, remaining serum HDL-C level above 1.15 mmol/L may reduce the risk of gout flares.