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一项关于极端温度与臭氧对水痘发病率影响的关联的时间序列研究。

A time series study of the association between extreme temperature and ozone on varicella incidence.

作者信息

Zhang Juan, Wang Binhao, Li Zixuan, Zhang Wanze, Yan Siyao, Geng Qiaoling, Guo Xian, Zhao Zitong, Cai Jianning, Liu Lijuan, Zhang Xiaolin

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, Hebei Medical University, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiiazhuang, 050017, China.

Department of Dermatology, Subcenter of National Clinical Research Center for Skin and Immune Diseases, Hebei provincial Innovation Center of Dermatology and Medical Cosmetology Technology, The First hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):31187. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82306-w.

Abstract

This study aimed to discuss the effects of extreme temperatures and ozone on the incidence of varicella in Shijiazhuang City from 2014 to 2022, which provides new ideas for preventing public health events. METHODS We collected varicella cases in Shijiazhuang, China, from 2014 to 2022 and evaluated the relationship between temperature extremes and ozone on varicella incidence by building distributional lag nonlinear models. The analysis was stratified by age and sex, with 19,188 varicella cases reported. A nonlinear "J"-shaped relationship emerged between mean daily temperature and varicella incidence, where colder temperatures heightened risk, while hotter ones reduced it, particularly affecting females and adolescents. Additionally, ozone concentration displayed an "S"-shaped correlation, with low levels posing a risk and high levels protective against varicella, notably among females and adults. Our study results show a significant correlation between extreme temperatures and ozone concentrations on varicella incidence, and this study may help prevention and control authorities to create timely warnings of high-risk outbreaks, and assist the public in responding to varicella outbreaks.

摘要

本研究旨在探讨2014年至2022年极端温度和臭氧对石家庄市水痘发病率的影响,为预防公共卫生事件提供新思路。方法:我们收集了中国石家庄市2014年至2022年的水痘病例,并通过建立分布滞后非线性模型评估极端温度和臭氧与水痘发病率之间的关系。分析按年龄和性别分层,共报告了19188例水痘病例。平均每日温度与水痘发病率之间呈现出非线性的“J”形关系,即温度越低风险越高,温度越高风险越低,对女性和青少年的影响尤为明显。此外,臭氧浓度呈现出“S”形相关性,低浓度时存在风险,高浓度时对水痘有保护作用,在女性和成年人中尤为显著。我们的研究结果表明,极端温度和臭氧浓度与水痘发病率之间存在显著相关性,本研究可能有助于防控部门及时发出高风险疫情预警,并协助公众应对水痘疫情。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/34b1/11682333/7f4202d8697e/41598_2024_82306_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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