Tang Xiantao, Qu Weijuan, Zhang Jiahui, Li Guohao, Zhang Xufang, Yang Shijie, Song Xiaotong, Zhao Minghua, Han Rongqing
College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, 250358, China.
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):31191. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82436-1.
The urban agglomeration represents the predominant form of new urbanisation, yet the evolution of its internal spatial structure exhibits pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity. This study concentrates on the Bohai Rim urban agglomeration, one of three major urban agglomerations in China, which has received comparatively limited research attention but has also undergone substantial urbanisation. Therefore, we reassessed and explored the spatial-temporal evolution of the spatial structure of urban expansion using Exploratory Spatiotemporal Data Analysis (ESTDA), and summarized the driving mechanisms using Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR). Our study found that the urban land expansion intensity of Bohai Rim urban agglomeration presented the differences between megacities and large cities, coastal and inland cities and the regional disparities exhibited a gradual narrowing and balancing over time and space, with the high-expansion intensity zones undergoing alternation. The dynamics of the local spatial structure performed a clear positive correlation with the development level and a negative correlation with the exploitation time. The urban expansion intensity was influenced by various factors, including population, economic and other variables. Over time, the main drivers shifted from emphasis on economic quantity to quality, and from financial support to government policy. The objective of this study is to substantiate the impact of socio-economic factors on the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of urban expansion and to propose strategies for alleviating urban land pressure in the Bay Area urban agglomerations. This study enriches the research on the urban expansion mechanisms of different types of urban agglomerations and enhances a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of urban expansion within it. The findings can provide valuable theoretical support for urban planners in future urban development and construction and can also serve as exemplars for urbanisation in other urban agglomerations.
城市群是新型城镇化的主要形式，但其内部空间结构的演变呈现出明显的时空异质性。本研究聚焦于中国三大城市群之一的环渤海城市群，该城市群受到的研究关注相对有限，但也经历了大规模的城市化进程。因此，我们运用探索性时空数据分析（ESTDA）重新评估并探究了城市扩张空间结构的时空演变，并运用地理加权回归（GTWR）总结了驱动机制。我们的研究发现，环渤海城市群的城市土地扩张强度在特大城市和大城市、沿海城市和内陆城市之间存在差异，区域差距在时空上呈现出逐渐缩小和平衡的趋势，高扩张强度区域不断交替。局部空间结构的动态变化与发展水平呈明显正相关，与开发时间呈负相关。城市扩张强度受多种因素影响，包括人口、经济等变量。随着时间的推移，主要驱动因素从注重经济数量转向质量，从财政支持转向政府政策。本研究的目的是证实社会经济因素对城市扩张时空异质性的影响，并提出缓解湾区城市群城市土地压力的策略。本研究丰富了不同类型城市群城市扩张机制的研究，增强了对其内部城市扩张时空异质性的全面理解。研究结果可为城市规划者未来的城市发展和建设提供有价值的理论支持，也可为其他城市群的城市化提供范例。
