Yin Jie, Xue Ying, Li Yunzhou, Zhang Chongliang, Xu Binduo, Ren Yiping, Chen Yong
Laboratory of Fisheries Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment, College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003, China; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA; Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao, 266003, China.
Laboratory of Fisheries Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment, College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003, China; Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao, 266003, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Jan;373:123859. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123859. Epub 2024 Dec 28.
Climate change has significantly altered fish population dynamics and marine ecosystems worldwide, resulting in multiple ecological, economic and social risks for sustainable fisheries. As a hotspot of global warming, China is anticipated to face with extensive climate-driven changes in marine fisheries and ecosystems, but a clear and adaptative management strategy has not been established. In this study, we assessed the climate adaptiveness of current fisheries management and alternative strategies with diverse management priorities. Dynamic ecosystem model, Ecosim, was used to quantify the effectiveness of these management options in mitigating ecological, social, and economic risks of climate change, as well as the potential trade-offs. Results showed that under the status quo fisheries management, climate warming would dramatically impair ecosystem structure and function, leading to declines in fishery yields, economic losses in the fishing industry, and potential food security crises. However, these climate-driven risks could be mitigated, or at least minimized, through improved fisheries management. The harvest control rule (HCR) strategy, which responds to climate-induced biomass variations, would be most effective in promoting sustainable fisheries production but limited in offsetting climate-driven economic losses; while multispecies strategies can, in a balanced way, help mitigate climate change impacts on sustainable fishery production, ecosystem health, seafood security, and economic profitability. Furthermore, their capability to offset climate-driven risks would be largely compromised with increasing greenhouse emissions, as no management strategy could sustain current ecological, economic and social levels of fisheries under the high-emission scenario. We emphasize the need to pursue a dual approach that incorporates both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and taking adaptive fisheries management strategies to realize fisheries potential and ensure ecological and socio-economic resilience. Although the dynamic model cannot incorporate climate-driven spatial variations, the insights and framework from this work can support the identification of climate-resilient management strategies over long-term and provide guidance on achieving climate-ready fisheries in China and other regions.
气候变化已显著改变了全球范围内的鱼类种群动态和海洋生态系统，给可持续渔业带来了多重生态、经济和社会风险。作为全球变暖的热点地区，预计中国将面临海洋渔业和生态系统因气候驱动而产生的广泛变化，但尚未制定明确且适应性强的管理策略。在本研究中，我们评估了当前渔业管理的气候适应性以及具有不同管理重点的替代策略。利用动态生态系统模型Ecosim来量化这些管理方案在减轻气候变化的生态、社会和经济风险方面的有效性，以及潜在的权衡取舍。结果表明，在现行渔业管理现状下，气候变暖将极大地损害生态系统结构和功能，导致渔业产量下降、渔业经济损失以及潜在的粮食安全危机。然而，通过改善渔业管理，这些由气候驱动的风险可以得到缓解，或至少降至最低。响应气候引起的生物量变化的捕捞控制规则（HCR）策略在促进可持续渔业生产方面最为有效，但在抵消气候驱动的经济损失方面有限；而多物种策略能够以平衡的方式帮助减轻气候变化对可持续渔业生产、生态系统健康、海产品安全和经济盈利能力的影响。此外，随着温室气体排放增加，它们抵消气候驱动风险的能力将在很大程度上受到损害，因为在高排放情景下，没有任何管理策略能够维持当前渔业的生态、经济和社会水平。我们强调需要采取一种双重方法，既减少温室气体排放，又采取适应性渔业管理策略，以实现渔业潜力并确保生态和社会经济复原力。尽管动态模型无法纳入气候驱动的空间变化，但这项工作的见解和框架可为长期确定气候适应型管理策略提供支持，并为中国和其他地区实现气候就绪型渔业提供指导。
