Januario Matheus, Pinsky Malin L, Rabosky Daniel L
Museum of Zoology & Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2025 Jan;28(1):e70021. doi: 10.1111/ele.70021.
Whether large-scale variation in lineage diversification rates can be predicted by species properties at the population level is a key unresolved question at the interface between micro- and macroevolution. All else being equal, species with biological attributes that confer metapopulation stability should persist more often at timescales relevant to speciation and so give rise to new (incipient) forms that share these biological traits. Here, we develop a framework for testing the relationship between metapopulation properties related to persistence and phylogenetic speciation rates. We illustrate this conceptual approach by applying it to a long-term dataset on demersal fish communities from the North American continental shelf region. We find that one index of metapopulation persistence has phylogenetic signal, suggesting that traits are connected with range-wide demographic patterns. However, there is no relationship between demographic properties and speciation rate. These findings suggest a decoupling between ecological dynamics at decadal timescales and million-year clade dynamics, raising questions about the extent to which population-level processes observable over ecological timescales can be extrapolated to infer biodiversity dynamics more generally.
谱系多样化速率的大规模变化能否通过种群水平的物种属性来预测，这是微观进化与宏观进化交叉领域一个关键的未解决问题。在其他条件相同的情况下，具有赋予集合种群稳定性生物学属性的物种，在与物种形成相关的时间尺度上应该更频繁地存续，从而产生具有这些生物学特征的新（初始）形式。在此，我们开发了一个框架，用于测试与存续相关的集合种群属性和系统发育物种形成速率之间的关系。我们将这种概念方法应用于北美大陆架区域底层鱼类群落的长期数据集，以此进行说明。我们发现集合种群存续的一个指标具有系统发育信号，这表明性状与全范围的种群动态模式相关。然而，种群统计学属性与物种形成速率之间没有关系。这些发现表明，十年时间尺度的生态动态与百万年级别的进化枝动态之间存在脱钩，这引发了一个问题：在生态时间尺度上可观察到的种群水平过程，能够在多大程度上被外推以更广泛地推断生物多样性动态。
