Lin Xin, Peng Shushi, Ciais Philippe, Hauglustaine Didier, Lan Xin, Liu Gang, Ramonet Michel, Xi Yi, Yin Yi, Zhang Zhen, Bösch Hartmut, Bousquet Philippe, Chevallier Frédéric, Dong Bogang, Gerlein-Safdi Cynthia, Halder Santanu, Parker Robert J, Poulter Benjamin, Pu Tianjiao, Remaud Marine, Runge Alexandra, Saunois Marielle, Thompson Rona L, Yoshida Yukio, Zheng Bo
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2024 Dec 30;15(1):10894. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-55266-y.
Record breaking atmospheric methane growth rates were observed in 2020 and 2021 (15.2±0.5 and 17.8±0.5 parts per billion per year), the highest since the early 1980s. Here we use an ensemble of atmospheric inversions informed by surface or satellite methane observations to infer emission changes during these two years relative to 2019. Results show global methane emissions increased by 20.3±9.9 and 24.8±3.1 teragrams per year in 2020 and 2021, dominated by heightened emissions from tropical and boreal inundated areas, aligning with rising groundwater storage and regional warming. Current process-based wetland models fail to capture the tropical emission surges revealed by atmospheric inversions, likely due to inaccurate representation of wetland extents and associated methane emissions. Our findings underscore the critical role of tropical inundated areas in the recent methane emission surges and highlight the need to integrate multiple data streams and modeling tools for better constraining tropical wetland emissions.
2020年和2021年观测到破纪录的大气甲烷增长率（分别为每年15.2±0.5和17.8±0.5十亿分比），这是自20世纪80年代初以来的最高值。在此，我们使用基于地面或卫星甲烷观测的大气反演集合，来推断这两年相对于2019年的排放变化。结果显示，2020年和2021年全球甲烷排放量分别增加了20.3±9.9和24.8±3.1太克，主要是热带和北方淹没地区排放量增加所致，这与地下水位上升和区域变暖相一致。目前基于过程的湿地模型未能捕捉到大气反演所揭示的热带排放激增情况，这可能是由于湿地范围及相关甲烷排放的表述不准确。我们的研究结果强调了热带淹没地区在近期甲烷排放激增中的关键作用，并突出了整合多数据流和建模工具以更好地限制热带湿地排放的必要性。
