Zhan Chengwei, Qiu Binxu, Wang Jun, Li Yanhua, Yu Jinhai
Daytime Observation Unit, The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China.
Department of Laboratory Medicine, Med+X Center for Manufacturing, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Front Oncol. 2024 Dec 18;14:1499384. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1499384. eCollection 2024.
Gastric cancer (GC) is a significant public health concern in the USA, and its burden is on the rise.
This study utilized the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We provided descriptive statistics on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of GC across the USA and states. By calculating percentage changes and average annual percentage changes (AAPC), along with conducting age-period-cohort analysis, we assessed the trends in the burden of GC. Decomposition analysis was then performed, followed by the application of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast changes in ASRs through 2036.
From 1990 to 2021, the number of incidence and prevalence of GC in the USA increased, but age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) trended downward (AAPC = -0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.77 to -0.68) and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) (AAPC = -0.99, 95% CI: -1.08 to -0.9) showed a decreasing trend. In addition, the number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR) in GC showed a decreasing trend. The burden of GC was significantly higher in males compared to females. In addition, we found that the highest incidence and prevalence in females was in the age group of 75-79 years, whereas the highest incidence and prevalence in males was in the age group of 70-74 years.
GC is a major public health issue in the USA. Although ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR for GC are decreasing, the number of incidence and prevalence of GC in the USA remains high, and the disease burden of GC in the USA remains high. Strengthening preventive interventions, particularly for men and patients over the age of 60, will be crucial in the future.
胃癌（GC）是美国一个重大的公共卫生问题，其负担正在上升。
本研究利用了全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的最新数据。我们提供了美国及各州胃癌的发病率、患病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）和年龄标准化率（ASRs）的描述性统计数据。通过计算百分比变化和平均年度百分比变化（AAPC），并进行年龄-时期-队列分析，我们评估了胃癌负担的趋势。然后进行分解分析，接着应用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测到2036年年龄标准化率的变化。
从1990年到2021年，美国胃癌的发病率和患病人数有所增加，但年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）呈下降趋势（AAPC = -0.73，95%置信区间[CI]：-0.77至-0.68），年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）（AAPC = -0.99，95% CI：-1.08至-0.9）也呈下降趋势。此外，胃癌的死亡人数、DALYs、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化DALYs率（ASDR）呈下降趋势。男性的胃癌负担明显高于女性。此外，我们发现女性发病率和患病率最高的年龄组为75 - 79岁，而男性发病率和患病率最高的年龄组为70 - 74岁。
胃癌是美国的一个主要公共卫生问题。尽管胃癌的ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR在下降，但美国胃癌的发病率和患病人数仍然很高，美国胃癌的疾病负担仍然很高。加强预防干预措施，特别是针对男性和60岁以上的患者，在未来将至关重要。
