Wang Weiwei, Wang Xianli, Flannigan Mike D, Guindon Luc, Swystun Tom, Castellanos-Acuna Dante, Wu Wanli, Wang Guangyu
Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Science. 2025 Jan 3;387(6729):91-97. doi: 10.1126/science.ado1006. Epub 2025 Jan 2.
Canada has experienced more-intense and longer fire seasons with more-frequent uncontrollable wildfires over the past decades. However, the effect of these changes remains unknown. This study identifies driving forces of burn severity and estimates its spatiotemporal variations in Canadian forests. Our results show that fuel aridity was the most influential driver of burn severity, summer months were more prone to severe burning, and the northern areas were most influenced by the changing climate. About 6% (0.54 to 14.64%) of the modeled areas show significant increases in the number of days conducive to high-severity burning during 1981 to 2020, most of which were found during 2001 to 2020 and in the spring and autumn. The extraordinary 2023 fire season demonstrated similar spatial patterns but more-widespread escalations in burn severity.
在过去几十年里,加拿大经历了更为强烈和持久的火灾季节,难以控制的野火发生得更加频繁。然而,这些变化的影响尚不清楚。本研究确定了火烧严重程度的驱动因素,并估计了其在加拿大森林中的时空变化。我们的结果表明,燃料干燥度是火烧严重程度最具影响力的驱动因素,夏季月份更容易发生严重火灾,而北部地区受气候变化的影响最大。在1981年至2020年期间,约6%(0.54%至14.64%)的模拟区域显示有利于高强度燃烧的天数显著增加,其中大部分出现在2001年至2020年期间以及春季和秋季。2023年异常的火灾季节呈现出类似的空间格局,但火烧严重程度的升级更为广泛。