Ma Xinyue, Wu Xiaoming, Du Jianqiang, Sun Haifeng
Department of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Nov 8;10(22):e40285. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40285. eCollection 2024 Nov 30.
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of endometrial cancer incidence trends in Hong Kong over the past three decades. It aims to evaluate the impact of demographic shifts and epidemiological factors, including age, birth cohort, and diagnosis period, on the incidence rates. The study also projects future trends in endometrial cancer cases up to 2030 and assesses the contributions of these factors using a detailed decomposition approach.
The analysis is based on endometrial cancer data obtained from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Age-period-cohort (APC) modeling was utilized to investigate the effects of different age groups, historical periods, and birth cohorts on the changing incidence patterns. The study projects future trends using a Bayesian APC framework, integrating historical data and expert insights for robust predictions. Additionally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to disentangle the contributions of demographic changes (aging and population growth) and epidemiological shifts (risk factors such as obesity and reproductive behaviors) to the increasing cases.
Between 1992 and 2021, there were 19,214 recorded cases of endometrial cancer in Hong Kong. Age-standardized and crude incidence rates showed consistent increases, rising from 7.4 per 100,000 person-years in 1992 to 31.0 per 100,000 in 2020. Incidence trends rose significantly across all age groups, with the highest increase seen in women aged 50-65. Projections indicate that the upward trend will continue, with an estimated 1718 cases by 2030. Demographic factors, particularly population aging, and evolving epidemiological trends contribute jointly to the incidence rise.
The findings reveal a steady increase in endometrial cancer incidence among Hong Kong women, primarily driven by demographic aging and shifts in risk factors. The study underscores the need for targeted public health measures and resource allocation for early detection and effective management strategies, emphasizing the importance of addressing modifiable risk factors such as obesity and reproductive health behaviors.
本研究全面分析了香港过去三十年子宫内膜癌的发病趋势。旨在评估人口结构变化和流行病学因素（包括年龄、出生队列和诊断时期）对发病率的影响。该研究还预测了到2030年子宫内膜癌病例的未来趋势，并使用详细的分解方法评估这些因素的贡献。
分析基于从香港癌症登记处获得的子宫内膜癌数据。采用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型来研究不同年龄组、历史时期和出生队列对发病率变化模式的影响。该研究使用贝叶斯APC框架预测未来趋势，整合历史数据和专家见解以进行可靠预测。此外，进行了分解分析，以厘清人口变化（老龄化和人口增长）和流行病学转变（如肥胖和生殖行为等风险因素）对病例增加的贡献。
1992年至2021年期间，香港共记录了19214例子宫内膜癌病例。年龄标准化发病率和粗发病率均呈持续上升趋势，从1992年的每10万人年7.4例上升至2020年的每10万人年31.0例。所有年龄组的发病率趋势均显著上升，50至65岁女性的发病率上升幅度最大。预测表明，上升趋势将持续，到2030年估计将有1718例。人口因素，特别是人口老龄化和不断变化的流行病学趋势共同导致了发病率的上升。
研究结果显示香港女性子宫内膜癌发病率稳步上升，主要由人口老龄化和风险因素变化所致。该研究强调需要采取有针对性的公共卫生措施和资源分配，以进行早期检测和有效的管理策略，强调解决可改变的风险因素（如肥胖和生殖健康行为）的重要性。
