Department of Orthopaedics, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, China.
Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
Int J Public Health. 2024 Aug 7;69:1607315. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2024.1607315. eCollection 2024.
To elucidate the historical trends, underlying causes and future projections of esophageal cancer incidence in Hong Kong.
Utilizing the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, we analyzed data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1992-2021) and United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 Revision. Age-standardized incidence rates were computed, and APC models evaluated age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian APC modeling, coupled with decomposition analysis, projected future trends and identified factors influencing incidence.
Between 1992 and 2021, both crude and age-standardized incidence rates of esophageal cancer witnessed significant declines. Net drifts exhibited pronounced downward trends for both sexes, with local drift diminishing across all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios displayed a consistent monotonic decline for both sexes. Projections indicate a continued decline in esophageal cancer incidence. Population decomposition analysis revealed that epidemiological changes offset the increase in esophageal cancer cases due to population growth and aging.
The declining trend of esophageal cancer in Hong Kong is influenced by a combination of age, period, and cohort. Sustaining and enhancing these positive trends requires continuous efforts in public health interventions.
阐明香港食管癌发病率的历史趋势、根本原因和未来预测。
利用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型，我们分析了香港癌症登记处（1992-2021 年）和联合国 2022 年人口预测修订版的数据。计算了年龄标准化发病率，并评估了 APC 模型的年龄、时期和队列效应。贝叶斯 APC 建模结合分解分析，预测了未来的趋势，并确定了影响发病率的因素。
1992 年至 2021 年间，食管癌的粗发病率和年龄标准化发病率均显著下降。净漂移在两性中均表现出明显的下降趋势，所有年龄组的本地漂移均减小。时期和队列率比在两性中均呈一致的单调下降趋势。预测表明食管癌发病率将持续下降。人群分解分析显示，由于人口增长和老龄化，流行病学变化抵消了食管癌病例的增加。
香港食管癌发病率的下降趋势受到年龄、时期和队列的综合影响。维持和加强这些积极趋势需要在公共卫生干预方面持续努力。
