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考虑气候变化影响的基于风险的桥梁生命周期成本与环境影响评估

Risk-based bridge life cycle cost and environmental impact assessment considering climate change effects.

作者信息

Lee Sang Hyeon, An Lee-Sak, Kim Ho-Kyung

机构信息

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, Republic of Korea.

Floating Infrastructure Research Center, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, Republic of Korea.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 3;15(1):725. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82568-4.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-82568-4
PMID:39753640
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11698832/
Abstract

To enhance sustainability and resilience against climate change in infrastructure, a quantitative evaluation of both environmental impact and cost is important within a life cycle framework. Climate change effects can lead performance deterioration in bridge components during their operational phase, highlighting the necessity for a risk-based evaluation process aligned with maintenance strategies. This study employs a two-phase life cycle assessments (LCA) framework. First, risk assessments are conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on steel plate girder bridges and prestressed concrete (PSC) girder bridges under identical structural conditions. The reduction in flexural strength of steel plate girders and PSC girders due to changes in environmental variables such as temperature and relative humidity, induced by various climate change scenarios, was evaluated analytically. Subsequently, life cycle environmental impact and cost assessments were performed, including maintenance outcomes derived from risk assessments. The findings revealed that the environmental impact and cost could increase by approximately 12.4% when climate change is considered, compared to scenarios where it is not taken into account. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the key factors influencing environmental impact and cost. The analysis determined that the frequency of preventive maintenance, the recycling rate, and environmental cost coefficient weight in the life cycle assessment significantly affected the results.

摘要

为了提高基础设施应对气候变化的可持续性和恢复力,在生命周期框架内对环境影响和成本进行定量评估至关重要。气候变化影响可能导致桥梁部件在运营阶段性能恶化,凸显了基于风险的评估过程与维护策略保持一致的必要性。本研究采用了两阶段生命周期评估(LCA)框架。首先,进行风险评估,以评估在相同结构条件下气候变化对钢板梁桥和预应力混凝土(PSC)梁桥的影响。分析评估了各种气候变化情景引起的温度和相对湿度等环境变量变化导致的钢板梁和PSC梁抗弯强度降低情况。随后,进行了生命周期环境影响和成本评估,包括从风险评估得出的维护结果。研究结果表明,与不考虑气候变化的情景相比,考虑气候变化时环境影响和成本可能会增加约12.4%。进行了敏感性分析,以确定影响环境影响和成本的关键因素。分析确定,预防性维护频率、回收率和生命周期评估中的环境成本系数权重对结果有显著影响。

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J Environ Manage. 2024 Sep;368:122234. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122234. Epub 2024 Aug 20.
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