Richards Delmaria, Yabar Helmut, Mizunoya Takeshi, Koon Koon Randy, Tran Gia Hong, Esopere Yannick
Division of Life and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering, Information, and Life Sciences, Graduate School of Science and Technology, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8572, Japan.
Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8572, Japan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2025 Jan;32(4):2007-2035. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-35669-6. Epub 2025 Jan 4.
Conventional power generation methods have led to adverse environmental impacts. Thus, the need for a strategic transition to alternative energy sources arises. This study presents a comprehensive approach to sustainable solar energy deployment using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. The research aims to identify suitable sites for utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) installations, estimate potential energy output, and assess solar PV deployment's environmental and economic impacts. The methodology integrates analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy logic, and geographic information systems (GIS) to evaluate land suitability across four scenarios. The analysis considers technical, economic, environmental, and social factors, including solar radiation, proximity to infrastructure, land use, topography, and stakeholder opinions. Results reveal that Scenario 1 analytic hierarchy process multi-criteria-decision-making (AHP-MCDM) identified 2824.1 km of suitable land, while the combined approach in Scenario 3 yielded 666.9 km. The study estimates potential annual energy generation ranging from 19.69 to 109.15 GWh/km/year, depending on the scenario and solar PV technology used. Environmental impact assessments indicate potential annual CO emission reductions of up to 51,365.84 tons, with associated cost savings of US $3.28 million. The research provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors, highlighting 16 optimal sites for utility-scale solar farm development across Jamaica, with the most promising in the Westmoreland, Manchester, and St. Mary parishes. These findings contribute to Jamaica's renewable energy goals and offer a replicable, sustainable solar energy planning framework in similar geographical contexts.
传统发电方式已对环境产生了不利影响。因此，出现了向替代能源进行战略转型的需求。本研究提出了一种利用多准则决策（MCDM）技术进行可持续太阳能部署的综合方法。该研究旨在确定适合公用事业规模太阳能光伏（PV）安装的地点，估计潜在能量输出，并评估太阳能光伏部署的环境和经济影响。该方法整合了层次分析法（AHP）、模糊逻辑和地理信息系统（GIS），以评估四种情景下的土地适宜性。分析考虑了技术、经济、环境和社会因素，包括太阳辐射、与基础设施的距离、土地利用、地形和利益相关者的意见。结果显示，情景1的层次分析法多准则决策（AHP-MCDM）确定了2824.1平方公里的适宜土地，而情景3的综合方法得出的适宜土地为666.9平方公里。该研究估计，根据情景和所使用的太阳能光伏技术，潜在年发电量在19.69至109.15吉瓦时/平方公里/年之间。环境影响评估表明，每年潜在的二氧化碳排放量最多可减少51365.84吨，相关成本节约328万美元。该研究为政策制定者和投资者提供了有价值的见解，突出了牙买加16个公用事业规模太阳能农场开发的最佳地点，其中最有前景的位于威斯特摩兰、曼彻斯特和圣玛丽教区。这些发现有助于实现牙买加的可再生能源目标，并在类似地理环境中提供了一个可复制的可持续太阳能规划框架。
