Obesity modifies the association between abnormal glucose metabolism and atrial fibrillation in older adults: a community-based longitudinal and prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the modifying role of obesity in the association between abnormal glucose metabolism and atrial fibrillation (AF) risk in older individuals.

METHODS

From April 2007 to November 2011, 11,663 participants aged ≥60 years were enrolled in the Shandong area. Glucose metabolic status was determined using fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels, and obesity was determined using body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and visceral fat area (VFA). Obesity-associated metabolic activities were assessed using the adiponectin-to-leptin ratio (ALR), galectin-3, and triglyceride-glucose index (TyG). New-onset AF was diagnosed by ICD-10.

RESULTS

During an average of 11.1 years of follow-up, 1343 participants developed AF. AF risks were higher in those with prediabetes, uncontrolled diabetes, and well-controlled diabetes than with normoglycemia. The hazard ratios were decreased by 14.79%, 40.29%, and 25.23% in those with prediabetes; 31.44%, 53.56%, and 41.90% in those with uncontrolled diabetes; and 21.16%, 42.38%, and 27.59% in those with well-controlled diabetes after adjusting for BMI, WHR, and VFA, respectively. The population-attributable risk percentages of general obesity, central obesity, and high VFA for new-onset AF were 10.43%, 34.78%, and 31.30%, respectively. ALR, galectin-3, and TyG significantly mediated the association of BMI, WHR, and VFA with AF risk (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Obesity mediates the association between abnormal glucose metabolism and AF risk in older individuals. WHR is a more effective modifier than BMI and VFA for moderating the association. ALR, TyG, and galectin-3 mediate the moderating effect of obesity on the association between abnormal glucose metabolism and AF risk.