Kumar Vijay, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Jena Diptismita, R Roopashree, Kaur Mandeep, Srivastava Manish, Barwal Amit, Siva Prasad G V, Rajput Pranchal, Jaiswal Vaibhav, Kathuria Rachna, Joshi Arun, Shabil Muhammed, Taneja Madhur, Mishra Abhinav, Alabed Alabed Ali Ahmed, Bushi Ganesh, Mehta Rachana, Sah Sanjit, Gaidhane Abhay M, Satapathy Prakasini
Evidence for Policy and Learning, Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, India.
South Asia Infant Feeding Research Network (SAIFRN), Division of Evidence Synthesis, Global Consortium of Public Health and Research, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, India.
Expert Rev Endocrinol Metab. 2025 Jan;20(1):99-106. doi: 10.1080/17446651.2024.2448790. Epub 2025 Jan 7.
The rapid rise of non-communicable diseases, particularly type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), poses a significant global public health challenge, with South Asia experiencing an increasingly severe burden. This study aimed to analyse historical trends of T2DM across South Asia from 1990 to 2021 and forecast incidence through 2031.
We carried out analysis based on the data from the 2021 Global burden of disease study. Joinpoint regression was used to identify significant changes in trends over time, and ARIMA models were applied to forecast incidence rates.
Between 1990 and 2021, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of age-standardized prevalence rates and incidence rates increased by 2.15 and 1.72 respectively. The age-standardized mortality rate rose more slowly, at 1.05 AAPC, with females experiencing a slightly higher AAPC than males. ARIMA forecasts suggest that by 2031, T2DM incidence rates will continue to rise significantly across all South Asian countries.
This study highlights the need for public health policies focused on preventing obesity, promoting physical activity, and improving healthcare access. It also calls for addressing regional disparities in T2DM prevalence and mortality to better allocate resources and prioritize policies to combat the diabetes epidemic inSouth Asia.
非传染性疾病的迅速增加，尤其是2型糖尿病（T2DM），对全球公共卫生构成了重大挑战，南亚地区的负担日益加重。本研究旨在分析1990年至2021年期间南亚地区T2DM的历史趋势，并预测到2031年的发病率。
我们基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据进行了分析。采用Joinpoint回归来确定随时间变化趋势的显著变化，并应用ARIMA模型预测发病率。
1990年至2021年期间，年龄标准化患病率和发病率的年均变化百分比（AAPC）分别增加了2.15和1.72。年龄标准化死亡率上升较为缓慢，AAPC为1.05，女性的AAPC略高于男性。ARIMA预测表明，到2031年，所有南亚国家的T2DM发病率将继续显著上升。
本研究强调了制定公共卫生政策的必要性，这些政策应侧重于预防肥胖、促进体育活动以及改善医疗服务可及性。它还呼吁解决T2DM患病率和死亡率方面的地区差异，以便更好地分配资源并优先制定政策来应对南亚地区的糖尿病流行。
