DeVivo M J, Fine P R, Cutter G R, Maetz H M
Arch Intern Med. 1985 Mar;145(3):428-30. doi: 10.1001/archinte.145.3.428.
A nonconcurrent prospective study of bladder calculi included 500 persons treated at the University of Alabama in Birmingham Spinal Cord Injury Care System between 1973 and 1981. Risk factors suspected of contributing to the development of bladder calculi were identified. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate each risk factor's adjusted odds ratio and to develop a predictive model for bladder stone formation. Bladder calculi were most likely to develop within one year of injury. Patients developing bladder calculi prior to first definitive discharge were most likely to be white and have neurologically complete lesions and Klebsiella infections at admission. Patients developing bladder stones within two years of hospital discharge were most likely to be young and white and have indwelling urethral catheters and either Proteus or multiple-organism infections at discharge. The predictive model was 82% sensitive and 83% specific when applied to a validation sample of patients.
一项关于膀胱结石的非同期前瞻性研究纳入了1973年至1981年间在阿拉巴马大学伯明翰分校脊髓损伤护理系统接受治疗的500人。确定了怀疑导致膀胱结石形成的危险因素。采用逻辑回归分析来估计每个危险因素的调整优势比，并建立膀胱结石形成的预测模型。膀胱结石最有可能在受伤后一年内形成。首次最终出院前发生膀胱结石的患者最有可能是白人，入院时患有神经学上完全性损伤和克雷伯菌感染。出院后两年内发生膀胱结石的患者最有可能是年轻白人，出院时留置导尿管，且患有变形杆菌或多种细菌感染。当将该预测模型应用于患者验证样本时，其敏感性为82%，特异性为83%。
