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创新计量器:美国和欧洲国家创新决定因素的基于主体的建模

Innovameter: Agent-based modeling of innovation determinants in American and European countries.

作者信息

Rodríguez Arles, Gaitán-Angulo Mercedes, Gómez-Caicedo Melva Inés, Robayo-Acuña Paula, Ruíz-Castro Iván Ricardo

机构信息

Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia.

Escuela de Negocios, Fundación Universitaria Konrad Lorenz, Bogotá, Colombia.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Jan 7;20(1):e0313756. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0313756. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

This article discusses the dynamics of innovation in America and Europe, focusing on variables such as access to technology, education, and life expectancy. To do this, the article proposes an agent-based model called the Innovameter. The dependent variable is the Global Innovation Index. The paper focuses on data analysis through correlation analysis and multiple hierarchical regressions to determine the contribution of specific variables related to the pillars of the Global Innovation Index and indicators of the Human Development Index. After analyzing the data, an agent-based model was built to parameterize these main variables by defining two levels of abstraction: at the global level, there is the country, where birth rates, life expectancy, ICT use, and research and development are defined. At the local level, we define the individuals who have an age, years of schooling, and income. A series of experiments were conducted by selecting data from 30 countries. From the results of the experiments, a nonparametric correlation analysis was performed, and correlation indices were obtained indicating a relationship between the predicted outcomes and the outcomes in the global index. The proposed model aims to provide suggestions on how the different variables can become the norm in most of the countries studied.

摘要

本文讨论了美国和欧洲的创新动态,重点关注技术获取、教育和预期寿命等变量。为此,本文提出了一种基于主体的模型,称为创新计量器。因变量是全球创新指数。本文侧重于通过相关分析和多元层次回归进行数据分析,以确定与全球创新指数支柱相关的特定变量和人类发展指数指标的贡献。在分析数据之后,构建了一个基于主体的模型,通过定义两个抽象层次对这些主要变量进行参数化:在全球层面,有国家,在国家层面定义了出生率、预期寿命、信息通信技术使用情况和研发情况。在地方层面,我们定义了具有年龄、受教育年限和收入的个体。通过从30个国家选取数据进行了一系列实验。根据实验结果,进行了非参数相关分析,并获得了相关指数,表明预测结果与全球指数中的结果之间存在关系。所提出的模型旨在就不同变量如何在大多数所研究的国家成为常态提供建议。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2cb0/11706465/413e53ad55a7/pone.0313756.g001.jpg

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