Maya Manoharan Ammathil, Suresh Veerankutty
Department of Botany, Government Victoria College, University of Calicut, Palakkad, 678001, Kerala, India.
Environ Monit Assess. 2025 Jan 7;197(2):146. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13570-6.
Elaeocarpus munroi (Wight) Mast., commonly called Nilgiri Marble Tree, is a nearly threatened taxa as per the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This species is endemic to the southern Western Ghats. The present study examines its spatial distribution across the sky islands of the Western Ghats under different climate scenarios (1900-2100) using four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Species distribution modeling was conducted using ensemble techniques in R, along with various ecological niche modeling algorithms. The present study examines the past, present, and future distribution of E. munroi across the Western Ghats. Historical projections indicated that the highest habitat suitability areas for the species were in the southern and central regions of the Western Ghats. The model projections for the species from 2021 to 2100 indicate a noticeable northward shift in habitat suitability. As climate scenarios change, the central and northern regions of the Western Ghats are becoming more suitable for it. This anticipated shift poses a potential threat to the species persistence, as the availability of suitable habitats decline in its historically preferred southern range. This range shift, coupled with E. munroi's near-threatened status, emphasizes the urgent need for its conservation interventions. This study pioneers efforts to understand and mitigate the impacts of climate change on E. munroi. This, in turn, offers a foundation for developing targeted conservation strategies in this ecologically important region. The findings highlight the importance of integrating climate change into conservation planning and management practices to safeguard the future of species like E. munroi within the broader ecosystem they inhabit. This study contributes to the growing body of research addressing the complex interplay between climate change and biodiversity conservation, thereby underscoring the need for collaborative and proactive approaches to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.
蒙氏杜英（Elaeocarpus munroi (Wight) Mast.），通常被称为尼尔吉里大理石树，根据国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）的标准，它是一种近危分类群。该物种是西高止山脉南部的特有物种。本研究使用四种共享社会经济路径（SSP），考察了在不同气候情景（1900 - 2100年）下，它在西高止山脉各天空岛屿的空间分布。利用R语言中的集成技术以及各种生态位建模算法进行了物种分布建模。本研究考察了蒙氏杜英在西高止山脉过去、现在和未来的分布情况。历史预测表明，该物种栖息地适宜性最高的区域位于西高止山脉的南部和中部地区。该物种在2021年至2100年的模型预测表明，其栖息地适宜性有明显向北转移的趋势。随着气候情景的变化，西高止山脉的中部和北部地区对它变得更加适宜。这种预期的转移对该物种的存续构成了潜在威胁，因为在其历史上偏好的南部范围内，适宜栖息地的可用性在下降。这种分布范围的变化，再加上蒙氏杜英的近危状态，凸显了对其进行保护干预的迫切需求。本研究率先努力了解和减轻气候变化对蒙氏杜英的影响。这反过来为在这个生态重要区域制定有针对性的保护策略提供了基础。研究结果强调了将气候变化纳入保护规划和管理实践的重要性，以保护蒙氏杜英这类物种在它们所栖息的更广泛生态系统中的未来。本研究为不断增长的关于气候变化与生物多样性保护之间复杂相互作用的研究做出了贡献，从而强调了采取协作和积极主动的方法来减轻气候变化不利影响的必要性。
