Wang Shuai, Cao Bo, Bai Runcai, Liu Guangwei
College of Mining, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin, Liaoning Province, People's Republic of China.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 9;20(1):e0312130. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0312130. eCollection 2025.
The determination of optimal production capacity for open-pit mines is influenced by various economic and technical factors and is highly susceptible to uncertainties. To effectively address the impact of uncertainty on capacity planning, this study develops a production capacity planning model for open-pit coal mines, based on the theory of economies of scale and incorporating multiple uncertainty constraints. A novel method is proposed to quantify and propagate the uncertainties of key capacity control factors, alongside a comprehensive uncertainty analysis framework for total revenue. Using a large-scale open-pit mine as a case study, the relationships and calculation tables for the uncertainties of key control factors are provided. Based on this, a mathematical expression for total revenue under the influence of multiple uncertainties is formulated, and the optimal capacity range is calculated. The application of the model is demonstrated through this case study, revealing that the uncertainties in production costs and coal prices are (-13.05%, +27.68%) and (-10.79%, +10.79%) respectively. Subsequently, risk-tolerant capacity planning recommendations are proposed, effectively mitigating the impact of uncertainties on production capacity determination.
露天煤矿最佳生产能力的确定受到多种经济和技术因素的影响，并且极易受到不确定性因素的影响。为了有效应对不确定性对产能规划的影响，本研究基于规模经济理论并纳入多个不确定性约束条件，构建了一个露天煤矿生产能力规划模型。提出了一种新颖的方法来量化和传播关键产能控制因素的不确定性，同时还构建了一个全面的总收入不确定性分析框架。以一个大型露天煤矿为例进行研究，给出了关键控制因素不确定性的关系及计算表。在此基础上，建立了多种不确定性影响下的总收入数学表达式，并计算出了最佳产能范围。通过该案例研究展示了模型的应用，结果表明生产成本和煤炭价格的不确定性分别为（-13.05%，+27.68%）和（-10.79%，+10.79%）。随后，提出了风险容忍型产能规划建议，有效减轻了不确定性对生产能力确定的影响。
