Fuller Madisen R, Ganjam Manaswini, Baker Justin S, Abt Robert C
North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Carbon Balance Manag. 2025 Jan 10;20(1):2. doi: 10.1186/s13021-024-00290-0.
Forests have the potential to contribute significantly to global climate policy efforts through enhanced carbon sequestration and storage in terrestrial systems and wood products. Projections models simulate changes future in forest carbon fluxes under different environmental, economic, and policy conditions and can inform landowners and policymakers on how to best utilize global forests for mitigating climate change. However, forest carbon modeling frameworks are often developed and applied in a highly disciplinary manner, e.g., with ecological and economic modeling communities typically operating in silos or through soft model linkages through input-output parametric relationships. Recent disciplinary divides between economic and ecological research communities confound policy guidance on levers to increase forest carbon sinks and enhance ecosystem resilience to global change. This paper reviews and summarizes the expansive literature on forest carbon modeling within economic and ecological disciplines, discusses the benefits and limitations of commonly used models, and proposes a convergence approach to better integrating ecological and economic systems frameworks. More specifically, we highlight the critical feedback loops that exist when economic and ecological carbon models operate independently and discuss the benefits of a more integrated approach. We then describe an iterative approach that involves the sharing of methodology, perspectives, and data between the regimented model types. An integrated approach can reduce the limitations or disciplinary bias of forest carbon models by exploiting and merging their relative strengths.
森林有潜力通过增强陆地系统和木制品中的碳固存和储存,为全球气候政策努力做出重大贡献。预测模型模拟不同环境、经济和政策条件下森林碳通量的未来变化,并可为土地所有者和政策制定者提供信息,告知他们如何最佳利用全球森林来缓解气候变化。然而,森林碳建模框架的开发和应用往往高度专业化,例如,生态和经济建模群体通常各自为政,或者通过投入产出参数关系进行软模型链接。经济和生态研究群体之间最近的学科分歧,使关于增加森林碳汇和增强生态系统对全球变化恢复力的杠杆的政策指导变得复杂。本文回顾并总结了经济和生态学科内关于森林碳建模的大量文献,讨论了常用模型的优点和局限性,并提出了一种融合方法,以更好地整合生态和经济系统框架。更具体地说,我们强调了经济和生态碳模型独立运行时存在的关键反馈回路,并讨论了更综合方法的好处。然后,我们描述了一种迭代方法,该方法涉及在规范的模型类型之间共享方法、观点和数据。综合方法可以通过利用和融合森林碳模型的相对优势来减少其局限性或学科偏见。