Haile Dessalegne Chanie, Bizuneh Yechale Kebede, Bedhane Mulugeta Debele, Mekonnen Abren Gelaw
Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, Arba-Minch University, Arba Minch City, Ethiopia.
Environ Monit Assess. 2025 Jan 11;197(2):162. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13518-w.
Understanding land use/land cover (LULC) changes is crucial for informing policymakers and planners on the dynamics affecting environmental and resource management. Most past studies highlighted the significance of LULC changes and their driving forces in various locations. However, comprehensive analyses that combine the impact of land management technologies (LMTs) on LULC changes using GIS and remote sensing tools have not been widely addressed. Thus, the study analyzes the effects of LMT adoptions on LULC dynamics and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Goyrie watershed from 1993 to 2022. It also examines household perceptions of the cause of LULC changes. Methodologically, Landsat 5 TM (1993), Landsat 5 ETM + (2008), and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS (2022) images were employed to analyze LULC changes and NDVI. Binary logistic regression models were used to identify households' perceptions of the causes of LULC changes. The findings revealed that the Goyrie watershed has experienced significant LULC changes since 1993. During the entire study period, the shares of grassland, shrub land, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 89.4%, 8.5%, 53.6%, and 1613.4% from their original sizes, respectively. Conversely, the coverage of bare land and forest land declined by 99.5% and 99.7%, with annual rates of decline of 3.29% and 3.3%, respectively. Throughout the study period, the increasing trends in grassland and shrub land, along with the decline in bare land, were attributed to LMT practices. The NDVI values of moderate and dense vegetation density decreased by 81.8% and 92.2%, respectively, from 1993 to 2022 due to the expansion of settlement areas and cultivated lands. Population pressure, expansion of settlements and agriculture, fuel extraction, LMTs, and policy issues significantly influenced the LULC changes. The study concludes that more sustainable and integrated LMT practices should be essential to managing the related risks of LULC changes.
了解土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）变化对于向政策制定者和规划者通报影响环境和资源管理的动态情况至关重要。过去的大多数研究都强调了LULC变化及其驱动因素在不同地区的重要性。然而，利用地理信息系统（GIS）和遥感工具综合分析土地管理技术（LMT）对LULC变化的影响尚未得到广泛探讨。因此，本研究分析了1993年至2022年期间采用LMT对戈耶里流域LULC动态和归一化植被指数（NDVI）的影响。研究还考察了家庭对LULC变化原因的看法。在方法上，利用陆地卫星5号专题制图仪（TM）（1993年）、陆地卫星5号增强型专题制图仪（ETM+）（2008年）和陆地卫星8号运营陆地成像仪/热红外传感器（OLI/TIRS）（2022年）图像分析LULC变化和NDVI。采用二元逻辑回归模型来确定家庭对LULC变化原因的看法。研究结果显示，自1993年以来，戈耶里流域经历了显著的LULC变化。在整个研究期间，草地、灌木地、耕地和居住区的面积分别较其初始面积增加了89.4%、8.5%、53.6%和1613.4%。相反，裸地和林地面积分别减少了99.5%和99.7%，年减少率分别为3.29%和3.3%。在整个研究期间，草地和灌木地面积的增加趋势以及裸地面积的减少归因于LMT实践。由于居住区和耕地的扩张，1993年至2022年期间，中度和密集植被密度的NDVI值分别下降了81.8%和92.2%。人口压力、居住区和农业的扩张、燃料开采、LMT以及政策问题对LULC变化产生了重大影响。研究得出结论，更可持续和综合的LMT实践对于管理LULC变化相关风险至关重要。
