Xu Yiwen, Tang Yuxing, Wang Changyou, Luo Zhaohe
School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Environ Pollut. 2025 Feb 15;367:125672. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2025.125672. Epub 2025 Jan 9.
Noctiluca scintillans is one of the most common harmful algal species worldwide. In this study, a MaxEnt model was constructed to calculate the present and future habitat suitability of N. scintillans in the China Sea. A comprehensive evaluation index of variable importance was defined to measure the importance of key predictors in the model, and offshore distance, long-term average minimum primary productivity, water depth, long-term average minimum temperature, and minimum salinity were determined as the dominant drivers. The HAB index that was constructed by integrating the carrying capacity and habitat suitability characteristics was used to measure the risk of harmful algal blooms (HABs). The index indicated that high-risk areas of HABs caused by N. scintillans occurred around Hainan Island, Taiwan Island, the coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang provinces, and the eastern nearshore area of Weihai in Shandong. Regardless of the greenhouse gas emission scenario, the occurrence of N. scintillans red tides was predicted to persist until 2100. Moreover, the total area of the HABs high zone was predicted to increase under RCP2.6 and decrease under RCP8.5, and the center of the integrated HABs high zone was predicted to be concentrated in the central area of the entire China Sea spanning 15°N to 33°N.
夜光藻是全球最常见的有害藻类物种之一。在本研究中，构建了一个最大熵模型来计算夜光藻在中国海的当前和未来栖息地适宜性。定义了一个综合的变量重要性评估指标来衡量模型中关键预测因子的重要性，并确定离岸距离、长期平均最低初级生产力、水深、长期平均最低温度和最低盐度为主要驱动因素。通过整合承载能力和栖息地适宜性特征构建的赤潮指数用于衡量有害藻华（HABs）的风险。该指数表明，由夜光藻引起的有害藻华高风险区域出现在海南岛、台湾岛、广东、福建和浙江沿海地区以及山东威海东部近岸区域。无论温室气体排放情景如何，预计夜光藻赤潮的发生将持续到2100年。此外，预计赤潮高风险区总面积在RCP2.6情景下会增加，在RCP8.5情景下会减少，并且综合赤潮高风险区的中心预计将集中在整个中国海15°N至33°N的中部区域。
