Mahfouz Ahmed A, Abdelmoneim Shaimaa A, Abdu Shymaa M M, Shiba Hoda A A, AboElela Asmaa M, Ghazy Ramy M, Alhazzani Adel A
From the Department of Family and Community Medicine (Mahfouz, Ghazy), College of Medicine, King Khalid University, Abha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, from Alexandria Directorate of Health Affairs (Abdelmoneim), Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population, Alexandria, Department of Public Health and Community Medicine (Abdu), Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura University, Mansoura, from Public Health and Community Medicine (AboElela, Shiba), Faculty of Medicine for Girls, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Neuroscience Center (Alhazzani), King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Neurosciences (Riyadh). 2025 Jan;30(1):49-58. doi: 10.17712/nsj.2025.1.20240092.
To describe age-standardized incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) from 1990 to 2019 and forecast these variables using the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data over the next years (2020-2030).
Poisson regression models were employed to identify significant changes in incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and DALY rates for different stroke types. For time series models, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing state space (ETS) models were used for forecasting.
The study demonstrated an increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 different types of strokes over the last 30 years, with a slight decrease in ICH and SAH types in 2015, followed by a continued increase. The prediction models indicated a sustained increase in the 3 types of strokes, accompanied by a decrease in DALYs. As regards DALYs, the trend for IS and ICH has been slowly and steadily increasing; however, there will be a modest decrease in DALYs rates for SAH during the next decade.
Stroke rates in KSA have increased over 3 decades, mainly among women and older individuals, and have a slow sustained increase over the forecasted period (2020-2030); thus, proactive strategies and healthcare interventions are required.
描述1990年至2019年沙特阿拉伯王国（KSA）缺血性卒中（IS）、脑出血（ICH）和蛛网膜下腔出血（SAH）的年龄标准化发病率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs），并使用全球疾病负担（GBD）数据预测未来几年（2020 - 2030年）这些变量。
采用泊松回归模型确定不同卒中类型的发病率比（IRRs）和DALY率的显著变化。对于时间序列模型，使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）和指数平滑状态空间（ETS）模型进行预测。
该研究表明，在过去30年中，每10万人不同类型卒中的年龄标准化发病率呈上升趋势，2015年ICH和SAH类型略有下降，随后持续上升。预测模型表明这3种类型的卒中持续增加，同时DALYs减少。关于DALYs，IS和ICH的趋势一直在缓慢而稳定地增加；然而，在未来十年中，SAH的DALY率将适度下降。
沙特阿拉伯王国的卒中发病率在30多年间有所上升，主要发生在女性和老年人中，并且在预测期（2020 - 2030年）内持续缓慢上升；因此，需要积极的策略和医疗保健干预措施。
