Ding Peng-Fei, Xing Chen-Jie, Gao Yong-Yue, Hang Chun-Hua, Zhuang Zong, Li Wei
Department of Neurosurgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Neurosurgical Institute, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Jan 3;25(1):27. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-21227-9.
Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) remains a serious public health problem worldwide, especially in economically developed regions/countries. This study intends to thoroughly analyze the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of SAH at the global, regional, and national levels. This study focused on the differences in SAH incidence between China and Japan from 1990 to 2019, and projected global, Chinese, and Japanese SAH incidence rates until 2030.
Data on the disease burden owing to SAH from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. linear regression analysis was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and linear regression method was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the disease burden from 2020 to 2030.
Globally, age-standardised incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates was declined from 1990 to 2019. In 1990-2019, the incidence of SAH decreased in China, while it increased in Japan, especially among middle-aged and elderly women. Projections suggest that the global incidence of SAH will decrease by 2.06% in 2030, with an increase of 6.24% in China and 13.82% in Japan, with the highest increase among Japanese women being 16.19%.
Global SAH incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates declined over the 1990-2019 period, with regional/national SAH mortality and DALYs rates negatively correlated with socio-demographic index (SDI), while SAH incidence was positively correlated with SDI. The incidence of SAH decreased in China and increased in Japan during this period. The predictions show that over the next 10 years, while the incidence of SAH continues to decline globally, the incidence of SAH in China and Japan has increased. Thus, SAH remains a serious disease burden that requires early intervention targeting risk factors and populations at risk that may have increased because of economic development.
蛛网膜下腔出血（SAH）在全球范围内仍是一个严重的公共卫生问题，尤其是在经济发达地区/国家。本研究旨在全面分析全球、区域和国家层面SAH的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）率。本研究重点关注1990年至2019年中国和日本SAH发病率的差异，并预测到2030年全球、中国和日本的SAH发病率。
1990年至2019年SAH所致疾病负担的数据来自《2019年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究》。采用线性回归分析计算估计年百分比变化（EAPC），采用线性回归方法计算平均年百分比变化（AAPC）。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测2020年至2030年的疾病负担。
在全球范围内，1990年至2019年年龄标准化发病率、死亡率和DALYs率均有所下降。在1990 - 2019年期间，中国SAH发病率下降，而日本SAH发病率上升，尤其是在中老年女性中。预测表明，到2030年全球SAH发病率将下降2.06%，中国上升6.24%，日本上升13.82%，其中日本女性上升幅度最高，为16.19%。
在1990 - 2019年期间，全球SAH发病率、死亡率和DALYs率均有所下降，区域/国家SAH死亡率和DALYs率与社会人口指数（SDI）呈负相关，而SAH发病率与SDI呈正相关。在此期间，中国SAH发病率下降，日本SAH发病率上升。预测显示，在未来10年里，虽然全球SAH发病率继续下降，但中国和日本的SAH发病率却有所上升。因此，SAH仍然是一个严重的疾病负担，需要针对可能因经济发展而增加的危险因素和高危人群进行早期干预。
