Ren Zhongrui, Zhang Sufang, Liu Huijuan, Pu Lei, Wang Xiuhui, Wang Zhaohua, Wu Meiqiong, Chen Ziwen
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
Climate Policy Lab, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, 160 Packard Ave, Medford, Massachusetts 02155, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2025 Jan 14;59(1):315-327. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.4c06125. Epub 2024 Dec 29.
With the rapid decline in the levelized cost, offshore wind power offers a new option for the clean energy transition of the power sector in China's coastal areas. Here, we develop a power system capacity expansion and operation optimization model to simulate the penetration of offshore wind power in China and quantify the associated health effects. We find that offshore wind power has great potential in mitigating the negative impacts of existing coal-fired power emissions. By deploying cost-competitive offshore wind power, it is projected that by 2050, offshore wind power would contribute 2% to 5% (306-654 TWh) of China's total electricity generation, cumulatively reducing pollutants from the electricity sector by 3% and preventing 165,000 premature deaths. Notably, with the implementation of incentive policies, the scale of offshore wind power deployment expands two to three times, yielding public health benefits that far outweigh the costs of policy implementation.
随着平准化成本的迅速下降,海上风电为中国沿海地区电力部门的清洁能源转型提供了新的选择。在此,我们开发了一个电力系统容量扩展和运行优化模型,以模拟中国海上风电的渗透率并量化相关的健康影响。我们发现,海上风电在减轻现有燃煤发电排放的负面影响方面具有巨大潜力。通过部署具有成本竞争力的海上风电,预计到2050年,海上风电将占中国总发电量的2%至5%(306 - 654太瓦时),累计减少电力部门污染物排放3%,并预防16.5万人过早死亡。值得注意的是,随着激励政策的实施,海上风电的部署规模扩大了两到三倍,带来的公共健康效益远远超过政策实施成本。