Feng Lingxia, Jiang Junjie, Hu Junguo, Chen Taolve
School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, 311300, Zhejiang, China.
Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Forestry Intelligent Monitoring and Information Technology Research, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, 311300, Zhejiang, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 14;15(1):1949. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-85753-1.
Urban expansion has triggered significant changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), profoundly affecting the global carbon cycle. The accurate prediction of the global distribution of urban SOC and assessment of the impact of future urban expansion on SOC are essential for urban soil carbon management. By using data from 377 urban locations, this study estimated the global distribution of urban SOC and projected future SOC changes under two socioeconomic scenarios: SSP126 and SSP585. The results showed that compared with the urban SOC density in 2000 (64.75 Mg C ha), the global urban SOC density by 2100 decreased by 1.19% and 4.72% under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. However, urban SOC stocks increased by 66.13% and 178.75% by 2100 under SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, reflecting a "carbon transfer" from natural ecosystems to urban land use. This study provides critical insights into the dynamics of urban SOC and underscores the necessity to balance urban expansion with ecosystem protection to reduce carbon loss and stabilise the global carbon balance.
城市扩张引发了土壤有机碳（SOC）的显著变化，对全球碳循环产生了深远影响。准确预测城市SOC的全球分布以及评估未来城市扩张对SOC的影响，对于城市土壤碳管理至关重要。本研究利用来自377个城市地点的数据，估算了城市SOC的全球分布，并预测了两种社会经济情景（SSP126和SSP585）下未来SOC的变化。结果表明，与2000年的城市SOC密度（64.75 Mg C ha）相比，到2100年，在SSP126和SSP585情景下，全球城市SOC密度分别下降了1.19%和4.72%。然而，到2100年，在SSP126和SSP585情景下，城市SOC储量分别增加了66.13%和178.75%，这反映了从自然生态系统到城市土地利用的“碳转移”。本研究为城市SOC的动态变化提供了重要见解，并强调了平衡城市扩张与生态系统保护以减少碳损失和稳定全球碳平衡的必要性。
