Li Tian, Hofer Stefan, Moholdt Geir, Igneczi Adam, Heidler Konrad, Zhu Xiao Xiang, Bamber Jonathan
Chair of Data Science in Earth Observation, Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jan 15;16(1):705. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-55948-1.
A major uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of marine-terminating glaciers is ice dynamics driven by non-linear calving front retreat, which is poorly understood and modelled. Using 124919 calving front positions for 149 marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard from 1985 to 2023, generated with deep learning, we identify pervasive calving front retreats for non-surging glaciers over the past 38 years. We observe widespread seasonal cycles in calving front position for over half of the glaciers. At the seasonal timescale, peak retreat rates exhibit a several-month phase lag, with changes on the west coast occurring before those on the east coast, coincident with regional ocean warming. This spatial variability in seasonal patterns is linked to different timings of warm ocean water inflow from the West Spitsbergen Current, demonstrating the dominant role of ice-ocean interaction in seasonal front changes. The interannual variability of calving front retreat shows a strong sensitivity to both atmospheric and oceanic warming, with immediate responses to large air and ocean temperature anomalies in 2016 and 2019, likely driven by atmospheric blocking that can influence extreme temperature variability. With more frequent blocking occurring and continued regional warming, future calving front retreats will likely intensify, leading to more significant glacier mass loss.
预测海洋末端冰川行为的一个主要不确定性是由非线性崩解前沿退缩驱动的冰动力学，对此人们了解甚少且难以建模。利用深度学习生成的1985年至2023年斯瓦尔巴群岛149条海洋末端冰川的124919个崩解前沿位置，我们确定了过去38年非跃动冰川普遍存在的崩解前沿退缩情况。我们观察到超过半数的冰川崩解前沿位置存在广泛的季节性周期。在季节尺度上，最大退缩速率呈现出几个月的相位滞后，西海岸的变化先于东海岸，这与区域海洋变暖一致。季节性模式的这种空间变异性与西斯匹次卑尔根洋流温暖海水流入的不同时间有关，这表明冰 - 海相互作用在季节性前沿变化中起主导作用。崩解前沿退缩的年际变异性对大气和海洋变暖都表现出强烈的敏感性，在2016年和2019年对大气和海洋温度异常有即时响应，这可能是由能够影响极端温度变异性的大气阻塞驱动的。随着阻塞现象更频繁地发生以及区域持续变暖，未来崩解前沿退缩可能会加剧，导致更显著的冰川质量损失。
