Ding Yating, Cai Xiuli, Ou Yangjiang, Liang Dong, Guan Qing, Zhong Wenling, Lin Xiuquan
Department for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China.
The School of Health Management, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China.
Diabetes Metab Res Rev. 2025 Jan;41(1):e70031. doi: 10.1002/dmrr.70031.
This study examined the diabetes burden in Fujian Province, China, from 1990 to 2019, comparing it with China and global levels to inform policymakers.
We used data from GBD 2019 to analyse diabetes prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We assessed the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated the impact of 17 risk factors. An age-period-cohort model evaluated age, period, and cohort effects on diabetes metrics. Bayesian models forecasted prevalence and DALYs for 2020-2030, with frontier analysis linking DALYs to per capita GDP.
In 2019, Fujian Province had approximately 2,359,179 diabetes cases with a prevalence rate of 4423.82 (95% UI 4004.12-4864.55) per 100,000 and an age-standardised DALYs of 475.00 (375.63-589.49) per 100,000, both lower than China and global averages. From 1990 to 2019, Fujian Province's age-standardised mortality rate remained higher than the China average, but the gap narrowed compared with 1990. Elderly males showed a pronounced increase in mortality. The period effect indicated a turning point during 2005-2009. DALYs increased among men and decreased among women over cohorts. By 2030, the DALYs rate is projected to decrease by 6.59%. Frontier analysis showed that compared with the same economic level, the effective difference in diabetes disease burden in Fujian Province was small, but there was room for improvement.
From 1990 to 2019, Fujian Province's age-standardised diabetes prevalence slightly increased, while mortality and DALYs declined. Significant gender and age disparities existed, highlighting the need for targeted strategies for elderly males. Fujian Province's success in diabetes management can provide a model for other regions.
本研究调查了1990年至2019年中国福建省的糖尿病负担，并与中国和全球水平进行比较，以为政策制定者提供参考。
我们使用了全球疾病负担研究（GBD）2019的数据来分析糖尿病患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。我们评估了年均百分比变化（AAPC）并估计了17种风险因素的影响。一个年龄-时期-队列模型评估了年龄、时期和队列对糖尿病指标的影响。贝叶斯模型预测了2020年至2030年的患病率和伤残调整生命年，前沿分析将伤残调整生命年与人均国内生产总值联系起来。
2019年，福建省约有2359179例糖尿病病例，患病率为每10万人4423.82例（95%不确定区间4004.12 - 4864.55），年龄标准化伤残调整生命年为每10万人475.00例（375.63 - 589.49），均低于中国和全球平均水平。1990年至2019年，福建省的年龄标准化死亡率一直高于中国平均水平，但与1990年相比差距缩小。老年男性死亡率显著上升。时期效应表明在2005 - 2009年期间出现了一个转折点。不同队列中，男性的伤残调整生命年增加，女性则减少。到2030年，预计伤残调整生命年率将下降6.59%。前沿分析表明，与相同经济水平相比，福建省糖尿病疾病负担的有效差异较小，但仍有改善空间。
1990年至2019年，福建省年龄标准化糖尿病患病率略有上升，而死亡率和伤残调整生命年有所下降。存在显著的性别和年龄差异，突出了针对老年男性制定针对性策略的必要性。福建省在糖尿病管理方面的成功可为其他地区提供一个范例。
