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全球疾病、伤害和危险因素负担研究 2021 年,1990-2021 年全球 204 个国家和地区及 811 个次国家地区 371 种疾病和伤害的发病率、患病率、伤残损失生命年(YLDs)、伤残调整生命年(DALYs)以及健康期望寿命(HALE):系统分析

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

出版信息

Lancet. 2024 May 18;403(10440):2133-2161. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00757-8. Epub 2024 Apr 17.


DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00757-8
PMID:38642570
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11122111/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. INTERPRETATION: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

摘要

背景:详细、全面和及时地报告残疾和过早死亡的根本原因对了解和应对随时间推移以及在不同年龄组、性别和地点的疾病和伤害负担的复杂模式至关重要。疾病负担估计的可用性可以促进循证干预,使公共卫生研究人员、政策制定者和其他专业人员能够实施可以减轻疾病的策略。它还可以促进更严格地监测国家和国际卫生目标的进展,如可持续发展目标。三十年来,全球疾病、伤害和风险因素研究(GBD)一直在满足这一需求。一个由合作者组成的全球网络通过提供、审查和分析所有可用数据,为 GBD 2021 的制作做出了贡献。GBD 估计值会随着额外数据和改进的分析方法的出现而定期更新。GBD 2021 首次估计了 COVID-19 大流行造成的健康损失。

方法:GBD 2021 疾病和伤害负担分析使用 100983 个数据源,估计了 371 种疾病和伤害的伤残调整生命年(YLDs)、寿命损失年(YLLs)、残疾调整生命年(DALYs)和健康期望寿命(HALE)。数据来自人口登记系统、死因推断、人口普查、家庭调查、疾病特定登记、卫生服务接触数据和其他来源。通过乘以每个疾病和伤害的特定后遗症的发病年龄性别地点年份的患病率,计算 YLDs。通过乘以死亡时的标准预期寿命乘以每个年龄的死亡人数来计算 YLLs。DALYs 通过将 YLDs 和 YLLs 相加计算。使用地点、年龄、性别、年份和病因的每人口 YLD 和特定年龄死亡率来生成 HALE 估计值。所有最终估计值的 95%不确定性区间(UI)为 500 次抽取的第 2.5 和 97.5%分位数值。在估计过程的每个步骤中都传播了不确定性。全球、七个超区域、21 个区域、204 个国家和地区(包括 21 个具有次国家地点的国家)以及 811 个次国家地点报告了 1990 年至 2021 年的计数和年龄标准化率。在这里,我们报告了 2010 年至 2021 年的数据,以突出过去十年和 COVID-19 大流行前两年疾病负担的趋势。

结果:全球 DALYs 从 2010 年的 26.3 亿(95%UI 24.4-28.5)增加到 2021 年的 28.8 亿(26.4-31.5),所有原因合计。DALYs 数量的这种增加主要是由于人口增长和老龄化,这表明 2010 年至 2019 年全球年龄标准化所有原因 DALY 率下降了 14.2%(95%UI 10.7-17.3)。然而,值得注意的是,这种下降在 COVID-19 大流行的前两年发生了逆转,自 2019 年以来,全球年龄标准化所有原因 DALY 率分别增加了 2020 年的 4.1%(1.8-6.3)和 2021 年的 7.2%(4.7-10.0)。2021 年,COVID-19 是全球 DALYs 的主要原因(212.0 百万[198.0-234.5]DALYs),其次是缺血性心脏病(188.3 百万[176.7-198.3])、新生儿疾病(186.3 百万[162.3-214.9])和中风(160.4 百万[148.0-171.7])。然而,在其他主要的传染性、孕产妇、新生儿和营养(CMNN)疾病方面,也取得了显著的健康进展。全球范围内,2010 年至 2021 年间,艾滋病毒/艾滋病的年龄标准化 DALY 率下降了 47.8%(43.3-51.7),腹泻病的年龄标准化 DALY 率下降了 47.0%(39.9-52.9)。非传染性疾病在 2021 年贡献了 17.3 亿(95%UI 15.4-19.4)DALYs,自 2010 年以来,年龄标准化 DALY 率下降了 6.4%(95%UI 3.5-9.5)。在 2010 年至 2021 年期间,在 25 种主要的三级原因中,焦虑症(16.7%[14.0-19.8])、抑郁症(16.4%[11.9-21.3])和糖尿病(14.0%[10.0-17.4])的年龄标准化 DALY 率增长最为显著。2010 年至 2021 年期间,全球伤害造成的年龄标准化 DALY 率下降了 24.0%(20.7-27.2),尽管各地、各年龄组和各性别之间的改善并不均衡。全球范围内,出生时的 HALE 略有提高,从 2010 年的 61.3 岁(58.6-63.6)提高到 2021 年的 62.2 岁(59.4-64.7)。然而,尽管总体有所增加,但 2019 年至 2021 年期间 HALE 下降了 2.2%(1.6-2.9)。

解释:将 COVID-19 大流行置于相互排斥和完全穷尽的健康损失原因清单中,对于了解其影响以及确保卫生资金和政策通过具有成本效益和循证的干预措施在地方和全球各级满足需求至关重要。全球流行病学转变仍在继续。我们的研究结果表明,优先考虑非传染性疾病预防和治疗政策以及加强卫生系统仍然至关重要。必须防止减少 CMNN 疾病负担的进展停滞不前;尽管全球趋势正在改善,但 CMNN 疾病的负担仍然高得不可接受。循证干预措施将有助于拯救儿童和母亲的生命,并改善全世界社会的整体健康和经济状况。政府和多边组织应优先考虑大流行病防范规划,同时努力减轻未来几十年将耗尽资源的疾病和伤害负担。

资金:比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会。

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