Odd David, Stoianova Sylvia, Williams Tom, Fleming Peter, Luyt Karen
Division of Population Medicine, School of Medicine, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom.
National Child Mortality Database, Bristol Medical School, St Michael's Hospital, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
PLoS Med. 2025 Jan 23;22(1):e1004417. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004417. eCollection 2025 Jan.
BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic children and young people (CYP) mortality in England reduced to the lowest on record, but it is unclear if the mechanisms which facilitated a reduction in mortality had a longer lasting impact, and what impact the pandemic, and its social restrictions, have had on deaths with longer latencies (e.g., malignancies). The aim of this analysis was to quantify the relative rate, and causes, of childhood deaths in England, before, during, and after national lockdowns for COVID-19 and its social changes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Deaths of all children (occurring before their 18th birthday) occurring from April 2019 until March 2023 in England were identified. Data were collated by the National Child Mortality Database. Study population size and the underlying population profile was derived from 2021 Office of National Statistics census data Mortality for each analysis year was calculated per 1,000,000 person years. Poisson regression was used to test for an overall trend across the time period and tested if trends differed between April 2019 to March 2021 (Period 1)) and April 2021 to March 2023 (Period 2: after lockdown restrictions). This was then repeated for each category of death and demographic group. Twelve thousand eight hundred twenty-eight deaths were included in the analysis. Around 59.4% of deaths occurred under 1 year of age, 57.0% were male, and 63.9% were of white ethnicity. Mortality rate (per 1,000,000 CYP per year) dropped from 274.2 (95% CI 264.8-283.8) in 2019-2020, to 242.2 (95% CI 233.4-251.2) in 2020-2021, increasing to 296.1 (95% CI 286.3-306.1) in 2022-2023. Overall, death rate reduced across Period 1 (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.96 (95% CI 0.92-0.99)) and then increased across Period 2 (IRR 1.12 (95% CI 1.08-1.16)), and this pattern was also seen for death by Infection and Underlying Disease. In contrast, rate of death after Intrapartum events increased across the first period, followed by a decrease in rate in the second (Period 1 IRR 1.15 (95% CI 1.00-1.34)) versus Period 2 (IRR 0.78 (95% CI 0.68-0.91), pdifference = 0.004). Rates of death from preterm birth, trauma and sudden unexpected deaths in infancy and childhood (SUDIC), increased across the entire 4-year-study period (preterm birth, IRR 1.03 (95% CI 1.00-1.07); trauma IRR 1.12 (95% CI 1.06-1.20); SUDIC IRR 1.09 (95% CI 1.04-1.13)), and there was no change in the rate of death from Malignancy (IRR 1.01 (95% CI 0.95-1.06)). Repeating the analysis, split by child characteristics, suggested that mortality initially dropped and subsequently rose for children between 1 and 4 years old (Period 1 RR 0.85 (95% CI 0.76-0.94) versus Period 2 IRR 1.31 (95% CI 1.19-1.43), pdifference < 0.001. For Asian, black and Other ethnic groups, we observed increased rates of deaths in the period 2021-2023, and a significant change in trajectory of death rates between Periods 1 and 2 (Asian (Period 1 IRR 0.93 (95% CI 0.86-1.01) versus Period 2 IRR 1.28 (95% CI 1.18-1.38), pdifference < 0.001); black (Period 1 IRR 0.97 (95% CI 0.85-1.10) versus Period 2 IRR 1.27 (95% CI 1.14-1.42), pdifference = 0.012); Other (Period 1 IRR 0.84 (95% CI 0.68-1.04) versus Period 2 IRR 1.45 (95% CI 1.20-1.75), pdifference = 0.003). Similar results were observed in CYP in the most deprived areas (Period 1 IRR 0.95 (95% CI 0.89-1.01) versus Period 2 IRR 1.18 (95% CI 1.12-1.25), pdifference < 0.001). There was no change in the trajectory of death rates for children from white (p = 0.601) or mixed (p = 0.823) ethnic backgrounds, or those in the least deprived areas (p = 0.832), between Periods 1 and 2; with evidence of a rise across the whole study period for children from white backgrounds (IRR 1.05 (95% CI 1.03-1.07), p < 0.001) and those in the least deprived areas (IRR 1.06 (95% CI 1.01-1.10), p < 0.001). Limitations include that the population at risk was estimated at a mid-point of the study, and changes may have biased our estimates. In particular, absolute rates should be interpreted with caution. In addition, child death in England is rare, which may further limit interpretation; particularly in the stratified analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, overall child mortality in England after the national lockdowns was higher than before them. We observed different temporal profiles across the different causes of death, with reassuring trends in deaths from Intrapartum deaths after lockdowns were lifted. However, for all other causes of death, rates are either static, or increasing. In addition, the relative rate of dying for children from non-white backgrounds, compared to white children, is now higher than before or during the lockdowns.
背景:在新冠疫情期间,英格兰儿童和青少年(CYP)死亡率降至有记录以来的最低水平,但尚不清楚促成死亡率下降的机制是否产生了更持久的影响,以及疫情及其社会限制措施对潜伏期较长的死亡(如恶性肿瘤)有何影响。本分析的目的是量化在英格兰实施新冠疫情全国封锁措施期间及之后,儿童死亡的相对发生率及原因,以及其社会变化情况。 方法与结果:确定了2019年4月至2023年3月期间在英格兰发生的所有18岁以下儿童的死亡情况。数据由国家儿童死亡率数据库整理。研究人群规模和基础人口概况来自2021年国家统计局人口普查数据。每100万人年计算各分析年度的死亡率。采用泊松回归检验整个时间段的总体趋势,并检验2019年4月至2021年3月(第1阶段)和2021年4月至2023年3月(第2阶段:封锁限制措施之后)的趋势是否不同。然后对每类死亡和人口群体重复此操作。分析纳入了12828例死亡病例。约59.4%的死亡发生在1岁以下,57.0%为男性,63.9%为白人。死亡率(每年每100万CYP)从2019 - 2020年的274.2(95%CI 264.8 - 283.8)降至2020 - 2021年的242.2(95%CI 233.4 - 251.2),并在2022 - 2023年升至296.1(95%CI 286.3 - 306.1)。总体而言,第1阶段死亡率下降(发病率比(IRR)0.96(95%CI 0.92 - 0.99)),然后在第2阶段上升(IRR 1.12(95%CI 1.08 - 1.16)),感染和基础疾病导致的死亡也呈现这种模式。相比之下,分娩期事件后的死亡率在第一阶段上升,随后在第二阶段下降(第1阶段IRR 1.15(95%CI 1.00 - 1.34))与第2阶段(IRR 0.78(95%CI 0.68 - 0.91),p差异 = 0.004)。早产、创伤以及婴儿和儿童期意外猝死(SUDIC)的死亡率在整个4年研究期间上升(早产,IRR 1.03(95%CI 1.00 - 1. 07);创伤IRR 1.12(95%CI 1.06 - 1.20);SUDIC IRR 1.09(95%CI 1.04 - 1.13)),恶性肿瘤死亡率无变化(IRR 1.01(95%CI 0.95 - 1.06))。按儿童特征进行的重复分析表明,1至4岁儿童的死亡率最初下降,随后上升(第1阶段RR 0.85(95%CI 0.76 - 0.94)与第2阶段IRR 1.31(95%CI 1.19 - 1.43),p差异<0.001)。对于亚洲、黑人和其他族裔群体,我们观察到2021 - 2023年期间死亡率上升,且第1阶段和第2阶段死亡率轨迹有显著变化(亚洲(第1阶段IRR 0 .93(95%CI 0.86 - 1.01)与第2阶段IRR 1.28(95%CI 1.18 - 1.38),p差异<0.001);黑人(第1阶段IRR 0.97(95%CI 0.85 - 1.10)与第2阶段IRR 1.27(95%CI 1.14 - 1.42),p差异 = 0.012);其他(第1阶段IRR 0.84(95%CI 0.68 - 1.04)与第2阶段IRR 1.45(95%CI 1.20 - 1.75),p差异 = 0.003)。在最贫困地区的CYP中也观察到类似结果(第1阶段IRR 0.95(95%CI 0.89 - 1.01)与第2阶段IRR 1.18(95%CI 1.12 - 1.2 5),p差异<0.001)。白人(p = 0.601)或混血(p = 0.823)族裔背景的儿童,以及最不贫困地区的儿童,在第1阶段和第2阶段之间死亡率轨迹没有变化;有证据表明白人背景儿童(IRR 1.05(95%CI 1.03 - 1.07),p < 0.001)和最不贫困地区儿童(IRR 1.06(95%CI 1.01 - 1.10),p < 0.001)在整个研究期间死亡率上升。局限性包括,风险人群是在研究中期估计的,变化可能使我们的估计产生偏差。特别是,绝对发生率应谨慎解释。此外,英格兰儿童死亡罕见,这可能进一步限制解释;尤其是在分层分析中。 结论:在本研究中,英格兰全国封锁措施后的总体儿童死亡率高于之前。我们观察到不同死因的时间分布不同,解除封锁后分娩期死亡呈现令人安心的趋势。然而,对于所有其他死因,死亡率要么保持不变,要么上升。此外,与白人儿童相比,非白人背景儿童的相对死亡率现在高于封锁前或封锁期间。
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