Chang Lixin, Nordin Norhaiza, Zhao Shiwei, Gu Xinhua, Zhao Ye
Faculty of Engineering Science and Technology, Infrastructure University Kuala Lumpur, 43000, Kajang, Malaysia.
Institute of Architectural Engineering, Shanghai Zhongqiao Vocational and Technical University, Shanghai, 201514, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 23;15(1):2913. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-85729-1.
Prefabricated buildings have a series of advantages such as high efficiency, energy savings, and environmental protection, and are being strongly promoted by the Chinese government. However, due to the late start of prefabricated buildings in China, the installation process of prefabricated components is relatively complex, leading to difficulties in quality and safety control. A novel evaluation methodology integrating the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) with prospect theory and interval-valued Pythagorean fuzzy numbers (IVPFNs) is proposed. Fully considering the subjective value perceptions of decision-makers when faced with losses and gains, a risk evaluation model is established based on different types of decision-makers. This model is then compared with the weight correction coefficient model from a balanced perspective to prevent bias caused by over-reliance on decision-makers' subjective preferences. This study establishes an assessment index system for assembly construction risk, considering personnel, materials, machinery, management, and technology factors. By merging prospect theory with the TOPSIS method, the application of Pythagorean fuzzy numbers is refined, enhancing the group decision-making process for evaluating risks in prefabricated construction projects. On the other hand, the prospect theory approach can focus on the actual psychological state of managers during decision-making, addressing the research gap concerning the impact of managers' psychological states on the evaluation process. The study identifies critical risk factors and suggests specific risk management strategies to improve the risk mitigation capabilities of construction entities, offering a structured approach to enhancing the efficiency and safety of prefabricated construction projects.
装配式建筑具有高效、节能、环保等一系列优点，正受到中国政府的大力推广。然而，由于中国装配式建筑起步较晚，预制构件的安装过程相对复杂，导致质量和安全控制存在困难。提出了一种将理想解贴近度排序法（TOPSIS）与前景理论和区间值毕达哥拉斯模糊数（IVPFNs）相结合的新型评价方法。充分考虑决策者在面对损失和收益时的主观价值认知，基于不同类型的决策者建立了风险评价模型。然后从平衡的角度将该模型与权重修正系数模型进行比较，以防止因过度依赖决策者的主观偏好而导致偏差。本研究建立了装配式建筑施工风险评价指标体系，考虑了人员、材料、机械、管理和技术因素。通过将前景理论与TOPSIS方法相结合，完善了毕达哥拉斯模糊数的应用，增强了装配式建筑工程项目风险评价的群体决策过程。另一方面，前景理论方法可以关注管理者在决策过程中的实际心理状态，弥补管理者心理状态对评价过程影响方面的研究空白。该研究识别了关键风险因素，并提出了具体的风险管理策略，以提高施工实体的风险缓解能力，为提高装配式建筑工程项目的效率和安全性提供了一种结构化方法。
