Paradise J E, Willis E D
Am J Dis Child. 1985 May;139(5):472-6. doi: 10.1001/archpedi.1985.02140070046031.
We used Bayes' theorem to evaluate the probability of vaginal foreign bodies in girls with genital complaints. The prevalence of vaginal foreign bodies in outpatient girls under 13 years of age with gynecologic disorders was found to be 4%. Review of the charts of 17 pre-menarcheal girls who had foreign bodies on 19 occasions and of 28 girls with infectious or nonspecific vaginitis demonstrated that patients with foreign bodies reported vaginal bleeding more frequently than discharge (14 and two of 15 symptomatic cases, respectively), while in contrast, patients with infectious or nonspecific vaginitis reported vaginal discharge more often than bleeding (23 and five of 28 symptomatic controls, respectively). Bayes' theorem indicates that, in populations resembling the one we studied, approximately 18% of preteenage girls with vaginal bleeding with or without discharge and 50% of those with bleeding and no discharge will prove to have vaginal foreign bodies.
我们运用贝叶斯定理来评估有生殖器不适的女童存在阴道异物的概率。研究发现，13岁以下患有妇科疾病的门诊女童中，阴道异物的患病率为4%。回顾17名初潮前女童19次出现阴道异物的病历以及28名患有感染性或非特异性阴道炎女童的病历，结果显示，有阴道异物的患者报告阴道出血的频率高于分泌物异常（分别为15例有症状病例中的14例和2例），而相比之下，患有感染性或非特异性阴道炎的患者报告阴道分泌物异常的频率高于出血（分别为28例有症状对照中的23例和5例）。贝叶斯定理表明，在与我们所研究的人群类似的群体中，约18%有阴道出血伴或不伴有分泌物异常的青春期前女童以及50%有出血但无分泌物异常的女童最终会被证实存在阴道异物。
