Munawar Munawar, McNeil Rhysa, Jani Rohana, Buya Suhaimee, Tarmizi Tarmizi
Statistics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia.
Mathematics and Computer Science Department, Faculty Science and Technology, Prince of Songkla University, Pattani, Thailand.
Environ Monit Assess. 2025 Jan 24;197(2):190. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13604-z.
Climate change and global warming are terms used to describe the variation in the Earth's mean temperature as a result of human activities contributing to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). One method for determining the temperature of a region is the land surface temperature (LST). The study of LSTs is important and closely related to climate change, as is the provision of convenient living and working conditions in cities, which support economic growth. The NASA Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) database was utilized to gather data on the LST for each subregion from 2000 to 2022. The study area comprises 11 capital cities from Southeast Asian (SEA) nations, organized into nine sub-regional super-regions. This study used the specific area of cities as a study area different from the previous study that covered islands. The objective of the present study was to employ a cubic spline model with seven or eight nodes to assess the periodicity and fluctuations in LST in SEA cities. A 95% confidence interval was then created using the LST variation. An adequate representation of the cyclical pattern in the cubic spline equation required eight knots. The research revealed a statistically significant increase in the mean daily LST in 8 of the 11 SEA super-regions. The findings showed a confidence interval of [0.295, 0.447] °C at the 95% confidence level and an overall average increase in the LST at SEA of 0.371 °C per decade. While the LST increased in Jakarta, Hanoi, Vientiane, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, and Phnom Penh, it remained unchanged in the Bandar Seri Begawan super-region. On the other hand, the LST was slightly lower in Naypyidaw and marginally greater in Manila. An increase in LST in SEA cities indicates global warming due to reduced green areas.
气候变化和全球变暖是用于描述由于人类活动导致城市热岛（UHI）形成而引起的地球平均温度变化的术语。确定一个地区温度的一种方法是陆地表面温度（LST）。LST的研究很重要，并且与气候变化密切相关，城市中便利的生活和工作条件的提供也与之相关，而这些条件有助于经济增长。利用美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）数据库收集了2000年至2022年每个次区域的LST数据。研究区域包括来自东南亚（SEA）国家的11个首都城市，分为9个次区域超级区域。本研究使用城市的特定区域作为研究区域，这与之前涵盖岛屿的研究不同。本研究的目的是采用具有七个或八个节点的三次样条模型来评估东南亚城市LST的周期性和波动情况。然后利用LST变化创建95%置信区间。三次样条方程中周期性模式的充分表示需要八个节点。研究表明，11个东南亚超级区域中有8个区域的日平均LST有统计学上的显著增加。研究结果显示，在95%置信水平下，置信区间为[0.295, 0.447]°C，东南亚地区LST总体平均每十年增加0.371°C。虽然雅加达、河内、万象、曼谷、吉隆坡、新加坡和金边的LST有所上升，但斯里巴加湾市超级区域的LST保持不变。另一方面，内比都的LST略低，马尼拉的LST略高。东南亚城市LST的上升表明由于绿地面积减少导致全球变暖。
