Park Jeong Hun, Lee Jungchan, Kim Kye-Hyun, Shin Yo Han, Mun Seog-Kyun
Research Institute for Healthcare Policy, Korean Medical Association, Yongsan-gu, Seoul, South Korea.
Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head Neck Surgery, College of Medicine, Chung-Ang University, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, South Korea.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Jan 25;25(1):322. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-21558-1.
In 2024, the Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare enforced a policy to increase the number of medical school students by 2,000 over the next 5 years, despite opposition from doctors. This study aims to predict the trend of excess or shortage of medical personnel in Korea due to the policy of increasing the number of medical school students by 2035.
Data from multiple sources, including the Ministry of Health and Welfare, National Health Insurance Corporation, and the Korean Medical Association, were used to estimate supply and demand. The inflow-outflow method was used for supply estimation, and assumptions were made regarding national medical examination pass rates, clinical physician consultation rates, mortality rates, and overseas emigration rates. Per capita medical use by gender and age group in 2022 was calculated for demand estimation of future medical use, and the results of future population projections were applied. The numbers of working days examined were 265, 275, 285, and 289.5 days.
The Korean government's prediction that there will be a shortage of 10,000 doctors in 2035 can be confirmed by the underestimation of the number of working days (265 days). However, if the actual number of working days, 289.5 days, is applied, not only will there be no shortage of doctors in 2035, but there could also be an oversupply of 3,000 doctors. If the number of medical school students has increased for five years and the public's medical use behavior and the number of working days for doctors are maintained at the current level, there is a possibility that there will be an oversupply of as many as 11,000 doctors by 2035.
Medical experts expressed concerns that the rapid increase in medical school enrollment would exacerbate the phenomenon of concentration, increase the cost of medical care, and collapse the medical system. In order to establish a reasonable plan for the supply and demand of medical personnel in the mid- to long-term, it is necessary to consider the future medical environment through discussions with medical providers and related organizations.
2024年，韩国卫生与福利部实施了一项政策，即在未来5年内将医学院学生人数增加2000人，尽管遭到了医生们的反对。本研究旨在预测由于到2035年增加医学院学生人数的政策，韩国医疗人员过剩或短缺的趋势。
使用来自多个来源的数据，包括卫生与福利部、国民健康保险公团和韩国医学协会的数据来估计供需情况。供应估计采用流入流出法，并对国家医学考试通过率、临床医生会诊率、死亡率和海外移民率做出假设。计算2022年按性别和年龄组划分的人均医疗使用量，以估计未来医疗使用需求，并应用未来人口预测结果。所考察的工作日数量为265、275、285和289.5天。
韩国政府预测2035年将短缺10000名医生，这一预测可通过对工作日数量（265天）的低估得到证实。然而，如果采用实际工作日数量289.5天，2035年不仅不会短缺医生，反而可能会有3000名医生供过于求。如果医学院学生人数连续五年增加，且公众的医疗使用行为和医生的工作日数量保持在当前水平，到2035年有可能出现多达11000名医生供过于求的情况。
医学专家担心医学院招生人数的迅速增加会加剧集中现象，增加医疗成本，并使医疗系统崩溃。为了制定合理的中长期医疗人员供需计划，有必要通过与医疗服务提供者和相关组织的讨论来考虑未来的医疗环境。
