A new method for estimation of illegal abortions.

For the years 1974, 1975, and 1976, the Danish National Board of Health has published statistical material showing the percentage of known conceptions (births, legal abortions, and other cases of hospitalized abortion) which end in spontaneous abortion. For the above-mentioned three-year period, the proportion was eight percent. The author shows that by employing this figure and the figures for births, legal abortions, and all other hospitalized abortion cases, the hospitalized illegal abortion cases can be estimated. The proportion of illegal abortions during the years 1960-71 have previously been estimated. By applying this new method of calculation to the same material, the author finds a much smaller figure for illegal abortion. The old method yielded certain maximum, medium and minimum figures for this material; the result of the new method corresponds approximately to the minimum figures of the old method, which employed percentages of six and eight for minimum and medium figures for spontaneous abortion. The author quotes literature which shows that these figures today are regarded as far too low. The application of these figures in the calculations might explain the disagreement between the results of the two methods. Some of the errors are examined.