Ahmad Adeel, Ahmad Sajid Rashid, Gilani Hammad, Nowosad Jakub
College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, 54590, Pakistan.
Taylor Geospatial Institute, St. Louis, 63103, USA.
Environ Monit Assess. 2025 Jan 30;197(2):205. doi: 10.1007/s10661-025-13639-w.
A spatial assessment of temporal forest cover changes is essential for effective forest conservation and management practices. This study analyzes changes in forest cover and the evolution of forest spatial configuration using Landsat satellite imagery over the past three decades (1990-2020) in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Pakistan. To achieve the objectives, landscape metrics and forest fragmentation analyses were applied. Additionally, a pattern-based spatial analysis was conducted to examine forest cover changes in the study area. Overall, the forest cover change from 1990 to 2020 was 74 km (- 1.75%), with an average annual forest cover change rate of - 2.5 km (- 0.06%) for the entire study period. A gradual decline in forest cover was observed between 1990 and 2020, with the most significant decline of - 29.92 km from 2000 to 2010. The forest fragmentation analysis reveals that the core forest areas (> 500 acres) are increasingly being divided into smaller (< 250 acres) and medium-sized (250-500 acres) patches. Landscape metrics at the class level show that, with a few exceptions, the overall forests in AJK remain connected and aggregated. Based on forest cover and ecoregions in the region, the pattern-based spatial and dissimilarity analysis identifies forest hotspots (areas of gains or losses) and clusters. To conserve, restore, and monitor the forests in the study area, decision-making and policy-making institutions can establish conservation priorities. They can also implement a more robust incentive-based UN-REDD + mechanism. This would involve formulating management strategies aimed at curbing forest loss and reducing forest degradation.
对森林覆盖随时间变化进行空间评估，对于有效的森林保护和管理实践至关重要。本研究利用过去三十年（1990 - 2020年）的陆地卫星图像，分析了巴基斯坦阿扎德查谟和克什米尔（AJK）地区森林覆盖的变化以及森林空间格局的演变。为实现这些目标，应用了景观指标和森林破碎化分析。此外，还进行了基于模式的空间分析，以研究该研究区域内的森林覆盖变化。总体而言，1990年至2020年期间森林覆盖变化为74平方千米（-1.75%），整个研究期间森林覆盖的年均变化率为-2.5平方千米（-0.06%）。1990年至2020年期间观察到森林覆盖逐渐下降，2000年至2010年下降最为显著，达-29.92平方千米。森林破碎化分析表明，核心林区（>500英亩）正越来越多地被分割成更小（<250英亩）和中等规模（250 - 500英亩）的斑块。类别层面的景观指标显示，除少数情况外，AJK地区的整体森林仍保持连通和聚集状态。基于该地区的森林覆盖和生态区域，基于模式的空间和差异分析确定了森林热点（增减区域）和集群。为了保护、恢复和监测研究区域内的森林，决策和政策制定机构可以确定保护重点。它们还可以实施更强大的基于激励的联合国降排加机制。这将涉及制定旨在遏制森林流失和减少森林退化的管理策略。
