Assessment of forest fragmentation and ecological dynamics in Western Himalayan Region over three decades (1990-2020).

A spatial assessment of temporal forest cover changes is essential for effective forest conservation and management practices. This study analyzes changes in forest cover and the evolution of forest spatial configuration using Landsat satellite imagery over the past three decades (1990-2020) in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Pakistan. To achieve the objectives, landscape metrics and forest fragmentation analyses were applied. Additionally, a pattern-based spatial analysis was conducted to examine forest cover changes in the study area. Overall, the forest cover change from 1990 to 2020 was 74 km (- 1.75%), with an average annual forest cover change rate of - 2.5 km (- 0.06%) for the entire study period. A gradual decline in forest cover was observed between 1990 and 2020, with the most significant decline of - 29.92 km from 2000 to 2010. The forest fragmentation analysis reveals that the core forest areas (> 500 acres) are increasingly being divided into smaller (< 250 acres) and medium-sized (250-500 acres) patches. Landscape metrics at the class level show that, with a few exceptions, the overall forests in AJK remain connected and aggregated. Based on forest cover and ecoregions in the region, the pattern-based spatial and dissimilarity analysis identifies forest hotspots (areas of gains or losses) and clusters. To conserve, restore, and monitor the forests in the study area, decision-making and policy-making institutions can establish conservation priorities. They can also implement a more robust incentive-based UN-REDD + mechanism. This would involve formulating management strategies aimed at curbing forest loss and reducing forest degradation.