Forecasting interannual abundance of Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

Corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea Boddie (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is a common herbivore that causes economic damage to agronomic and specialty crops across North America. The interannual abundance of H. zea is closely linked to climactic variables that influence overwintering survival, as well as within-season host plant availability that drives generational population increases. Although the abiotic and biotic drivers of H. zea populations have been well documented, prior temporal H. zea modeling studies have largely focused on mechanistic/simulation approaches, long term distribution characterization, or degree day-based phenology within the growing season. While these modeling approaches provide insight into H. zea population ecology, growers remain interested in approaches that forecast the interannual magnitude of moth flights which is a key knowledge gap limiting early warning before crops are planted. Our study used trap data from 48 site-by-year combinations distributed across North Carolina between 2008 and 2021 to forecast H. zea abundance in advance of the growing season. To do this, meteorological data from weather stations were combined with crop and soil data to create predictor variables for a random forest H. zea forecasting model. Overall model performance was strong (R2 = 0.92, RMSE = 350) and demonstrates a first step toward development of contemporary model-based forecasting tools that enable proactive approaches in support of integrated pest management plans. Similar methods could be applied at a larger spatial extent by leveraging national gridded climate and crop data paired with trap counts to expand forecasting models throughout the H. zea overwintering range.