Infant mortality in Sri Lankan households: a causal model.

The infant mortality rate in Sri Lanka has fallen precipitiously since World War II, to 44 per 1000 births, a rate that is similar to a number of Western Countries. Yet the aggregated country rate masks wide variations across districts, from a low 21 per 1000 in Jaffna District to a high of 100 per 1000 in Nuwara Eliya District. Such regional variations in infant mortality rates have been shown to be related to a number of social, demographic and intitutional characteristics of each area. To specify such linkages we move, in this paper, from the aggregate level of analysis to the level of individual households in order to look for social, economic and other characteristics associated with infant deaths. Data are derived from a systematic interview of 480 household heads in 12 villages of Sri Lanka, collected in 1980. The most proximate factors, public health or medical variables, that predict infant death in particular households include quality of family nutrition, supervised childbirth, immunization of children and, most significant, whether the family has a sanitary latrine. Yet these medical variables are strongly associated with educational and economic characteristics of the family which, in turn, are predictive of infant mortality. Poor families and poorly educated mothers are less likely to go to hospital for childbirth, have a latrine, etc., and more likely to have had an infant die. Underlying the variations in education and economic status are variations in ethnic group; families with poor sanitation, least education and few economic resources are most likely to be members of the minority communities, Ceylon or Indian Tamils and Muslims. Minority group membership is significantly associated with infant mortality as well. When a set of medical, educational, economic and cultural variables are examined simultaneously within a path model we show that the best causal explanation of infant death in Sri Lankan households says, "Minority group status results in poverty which prevents families from having safe sanitary facilities which causes infant death". Infant mortality in Sri Lanka is thus not simply a medical problem to be dealt with by public health programs, nor is it solely an economic problem that can be solved with creation of jobs, but it is better seen as a problem of the structure of the whole society.