Pendleton B F, Yang S O
Soc Sci Med. 1985;20(5):453-60. doi: 10.1016/0277-9536(85)90360-0.
It has been argued that mortality declines in developing countries have not been associated with social and economic factors because of the diffusion from the developed countries to the developing countries of health and medical techniques. This paper examines the relationship between socioeconomic development and health and mortality declines in developing countries which are in two different stages of the demographic transition. A path model linking socioeconomic and health variables and mortality is developed and tested for early and late transition nations. The empirical findings indicated that the network of socioeconomic variables and their effects on mortality were much more significant in late transition countries than in early transition countries. While the impact of health services on crude death rates is large in the early transition nations, its impact declines considerably as countries reach a more transitionally 'mature' stage.
有人认为，发展中国家死亡率的下降与社会和经济因素无关，原因是健康和医疗技术从发达国家传播到了发展中国家。本文考察了处于人口转变两个不同阶段的发展中国家的社会经济发展与健康及死亡率下降之间的关系。针对早期和晚期转变国家，构建并检验了一个将社会经济变量、健康变量与死亡率联系起来的路径模型。实证研究结果表明，社会经济变量网络及其对死亡率的影响在晚期转变国家比在早期转变国家更为显著。虽然健康服务在早期转变国家对粗死亡率的影响很大，但随着各国进入更“成熟”的转变阶段，其影响会大幅下降。
