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卢旺达气管造口术患者拔管时间及失败驱动因素的生存分析。

Survival analysis of time to decannulation and failure drivers among tracheostomy patients in Rwanda.

作者信息

Kubahoniyesu Theogene, Tuyishime Gadeline

机构信息

African Centre of Excellence in Data Science, University of Rwanda, P.O. Box 4285, Kigali, Rwanda.

Research, Innovation and Data Science, Rwanda Biomedical Centre, P.O. Box 7162, Kigali, Rwanda.

出版信息

BMC Surg. 2025 Feb 13;25(1):64. doi: 10.1186/s12893-025-02790-3.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Tracheostomy is essential for patients requiring prolonged ventilation, but studies on decannulation in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda, are limited. This study assesses decannulation success rates and identifying factors influencing the outcomes at the University Teaching Hospital of Kigali(CHUK).

METHODS

This was a retrospective cross-sectional study. Data on 62 patients who underwent tracheostomy at CHUK from October 2022 to October 2023 and reached decannulation were analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted using R, employing Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves to estimate median time to decannulation and Cox proportional hazards models to determine factors affecting outcomes. Bboth adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were reported.

RESULTS

Decannulation failure observed from 22 patients (35.5%). The median time to decannulation was 60 days (Interquartile range (IQR): 46-74). KM indicated a shorter decannulation median time for elective tracheostomies (60 days, IQR: 43-77) compared to emergency ones (180 days, IQR: 151-209) and for females (60 days, IQR: 49-71) Compared to males (68 days, IQR:52-84). Elective tracheostomy was significantly associated with decannulation success, with an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) of 0.19 (95% CI: 0.04-0.91, P = 0.039), indicating lower hazard for decannulation failure compared to emergency type. However, this finding is exploratory and should be interpreted cautiously. Age of a patient increased with less hazard to decannulation failure; however, the association was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Male Patients and those undergoing elective tracheostomies had a longer median time to decannulation. The findings highlight the importance of strategic planning in determining the timing and type of tracheostomy, with a focus on optimizing conditions for elective procedures whenever possible to improve patient outcomes.

摘要

背景

气管切开术对于需要长期通气的患者至关重要,但在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,包括卢旺达,关于拔管的研究有限。本研究评估了基加利大学教学医院(CHUK)的拔管成功率,并确定影响拔管结果的因素。

方法

这是一项回顾性横断面研究。分析了2022年10月至2023年10月在CHUK接受气管切开术并达到拔管的62例患者的数据。使用R软件进行生存分析,采用Kaplan-Meier(KM)曲线估计拔管的中位时间,并使用Cox比例风险模型确定影响结果的因素。报告了调整后的风险比(AHR)及其置信区间(CI)。

结果

22例患者(35.5%)出现拔管失败。拔管的中位时间为60天(四分位间距(IQR):46 - 74)。KM曲线显示,与急诊气管切开术(180天,IQR:151 - 209)相比,择期气管切开术的拔管中位时间较短(60天,IQR:43 - 77);与男性(68天,IQR:52 - 84)相比,女性的拔管中位时间较短(60天,IQR:49 - 71)。择期气管切开术与拔管成功显著相关,调整后的风险比(AHR)为0.19(95%CI:0.04 - 0.91,P = 0.039),表明与急诊类型相比,拔管失败的风险较低。然而,这一发现具有探索性,应谨慎解释。患者年龄越大,拔管失败的风险越低;然而,这种关联在统计学上并不显著。

结论

男性患者和接受择期气管切开术的患者拔管中位时间较长。研究结果凸显了在确定气管切开术的时机和类型时进行战略规划的重要性,应尽可能侧重于优化择期手术的条件以改善患者预后。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3920/11823104/61dd1911b45e/12893_2025_2790_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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